Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Cam Schlittler Faces a Toronto Rotation Running on Empty

Cam Schlittler takes the mound Saturday trying to snap New York’s two-game skid, but he’s walking into a Rogers Centre crowd that just watched Vladimir Guerrero Jr. get carried off the bases — and the Blue Jays have won six of their last eight regardless of who’s healthy.

Quick take:

• Pick: Yankees -1.5
• Why: Cam Schlittler against a Toronto rotation that’s lost basically every established starter it had
• The number to watch: Braydon Fisher’s 3.54 ERA as Toronto’s best remaining healthy option

The Yankees (68-54) sit second in the AL East at 6.5 games back of Tampa Bay, but they’ve dropped two straight, including Friday’s 3-1 loss in the series opener here. Toronto (60-64) is fourth in the division and 16.5 games out of first, yet the Blue Jays have quietly won seven of their last ten and just took three of four from Boston before beating New York on Friday. The two teams have split their first eight meetings of the season 4-4, so Saturday’s game — the ninth of the season series — is a legitimate coin-flip on paper, even if the win-loss records suggest otherwise.

Toronto’s Friday win came at a cost. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was pulled after appearing to take a knee to the head sliding into third base, and he didn’t return to the field for the seventh inning. He’s officially day-to-day, and his status for Saturday is very much in question as of first pitch.

What the Betting Market Is Saying

Books have New York as a fairly heavy road favorite, with moneyline pricing in the -170 to -186 range depending on the book and the Yankees also laying -1.5 on the run line. The total sits at 7.5, with the over getting slightly more play across most shops. Anyone comparing live MLB odds across books will notice that gap between the records and the price makes sense on the surface — New York has the better roster — but it’s notable that the market isn’t pricing in Toronto’s actual form or the health uncertainty hanging over New York’s own lineup.

Recent Form

New York has been streaky for weeks, alternating winning and losing stretches without ever pulling away, while Toronto has quietly built some real momentum underneath a losing record. The head-to-head log below rounds out the picture heading into game two of this series.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

A Lineup Missing Its Captain

New York is still playing without Aaron Judge, who hasn’t appeared in a game since May 31 because of a stress fracture in his right rib. General manager Brian Cashman has stopped short of ruling out a return this season, but as of this week Judge is only doing light running and lifting — MLB Network’s Jon Heyman has pegged a realistic return for mid-September, not this weekend. Giancarlo Stanton and Cody Bellinger are also both out with leg injuries, and Carlos Rodon remains on the 15-day IL with an elbow issue, which has forced New York to lean harder on its lineup depth than the front office would like in a playoff race.

That depth has actually held up. Ben Rice has emerged as the Yankees’ new middle-of-the-order threat, hitting .256 with 32 home runs, and Trent Grisham has chipped in 15 homers from the leadoff spot while playing solid center field defense in Judge’s absence. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has added 17 homers of his own, giving New York enough thump to survive the absences — for now.

Toronto’s pitching staff has lost Berrios, Bloss, Taillon, Clase, Arrighetti, Yesavage, Corbin, Ponce, Mantiply, Garcia, Barger and Santander to injury at various points this season — a staggering list for one rotation and bullpen to absorb.

That’s the real story here. Braydon Fisher (3-3, 3.54 ERA) is essentially pitching as Toronto’s de facto No. 1 starter by circumstance rather than merit, and the bullpen behind him has been stretched thin covering for that wave of injuries. Kazuma Okamoto has been the one consistent bright spot for the Blue Jays, hitting 24 home runs, but asking a lineup that’s also possibly missing Guerrero to out-slug a Yankees team with a healthier pitching staff is a tall order even with Toronto’s recent form working in its favor.

Prediction and Best Bet

Cam Schlittler has been the Yankees’ most reliable starter all season at 10-6 with a 2.21 ERA, and New York is 13-8 this year when he starts as the favorite. Against a Toronto rotation running on fumes and a lineup that may be without its best hitter, that edge should show up on the scoreboard even with the Blue Jays’ recent momentum. Look for the Yankees to control this one from the middle innings on.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Yankees 6, Blue Jays 3
2. Best Bet: Yankees -1.5

Fade the recent Toronto win streak here — the pitching mismatch is simply too significant, and Schlittler gives New York the best starter on the mound in either dugout.