Warriors vs Spurs Prediction: Total Looks High Without Curry

Golden State has been better than anyone expected without its superstar, but a 10-game San Antonio win streak and a double-digit spread ask a lot of a team missing Stephen Curry.

Quick take:

• Pick: Under 219.5 total points
• Why: Without Curry, the Warriors lose their pace-and-spacing engine, and the Spurs turn games into half-court grinds around Victor Wembanyama’s rim protection.
• The number to watch: Spurs games have gone over the closing total just 33.3% of the time this season, versus 58.3% for Golden State.

The Warriors (8-4, sixth in the West) visit the Frost Bank Center on Friday night to face the Spurs (10-2, second in the West) in NBA Cup group play. Tip-off is 9:30 PM ET.

The headline is the injury. Curry is out with an oblique abdominal tear and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, after he left Wednesday’s 115-108 loss in Houston just six minutes in. That defeat ended an eight-game Golden State winning streak, the franchise’s longest since the 2022 championship season.

San Antonio, meanwhile, rolls in off a 4-0 road trip and a 10-game winning streak of its own. Both teams played Wednesday, so this is a one-day-rest game for each.

Spurs Laying Double Digits Against a Hot Warriors Team

The market is treating this like a mismatch. San Antonio is a 12.5-point favorite at most books, with the moneyline around Warriors +500 and Spurs -520 or longer depending on the shop. The total is hovering near 219.5, though a few books have posted numbers noticeably higher or lower, so shopping around matters here.

Here is the interesting wrinkle: the Spurs are only 5-7 against the spread despite their 10-2 record. They keep winning, but not always by the margin the number demands.

Recent Form

Both teams arrive with real momentum, but the recent results tell two different stories. The Spurs have not lost in their last 10, while the Warriors are 8-2 over the same stretch with their only recent blemish coming Wednesday.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Why the Under Has More Room Than It Looks

Golden State’s offense has been excellent this season. It ranks second in offensive rating at 118.8 points per 100 possessions and shoots an effective 56.6 percent, with 48.2 percent of its field-goal attempts coming from three and 39.6 percent of them going in. A lot of that shot-making runs through Curry, who was averaging 30.6 points before he got hurt and whose gravity opens everything for teammates like Brandin Podziemski and Yaxel Lendeborg.

Lendeborg led all scorers in Houston with 25 points and 10 rebounds, and Podziemski added 22 points with four 3-pointers. Those two will carry more of the creation load, and De’Anthony Melton stepped into Curry’s spot in the second half on Wednesday. That is a group that can score, but it is not the same spacing machine, and it will see a very different defense on Friday.

That defense starts with Victor Wembanyama. He is averaging 30.3 points, 11.7 rebounds and a league-best 4.4 blocks per game, and during the win streak he has been at 32.6 points, 11.4 rebounds and 4.5 blocks. Every driving lane a Warriors guard takes ends in front of a 7-foot-4 shot blocker, which pushes Golden State toward contested looks and long possessions.

San Antonio’s games have gone over the closing total in only 33.3 percent of games this season, compared with 58.3 percent for Golden State.

That split is the heart of the pick. The Warriors’ games have trended toward points, but the Spurs’ games have not, and the team that controls tempo at home is the one that is 10-2.

The public disagrees, with roughly nine of every ten tickets sitting on the over. That is a lot of one-sided money on a number driven by Golden State’s season-long scoring, not the version of the Warriors that will take the floor Friday.

There is a case on the other side. If Dylan Harper gets San Antonio out in transition, the Spurs can score in bunches, and a blowout with garbage-time points could drag the total up. Anyone adding a position can compare offers through a DraftKings promo code before locking in a number.

The recent history in this building is worth a nod too. The Warriors won both November 2025 games in San Antonio, 125-120 and 109-108, with Curry scoring 46 and 49. The Spurs took both 2026 meetings in San Francisco, 126-113 and 127-113. Curry’s absence changes the math on all of it.

Prediction and Best Bet

San Antonio wins at home behind Wembanyama and a deeper rotation, but Golden State has outscored opponents by 2.3 points per 100 possessions in non-Curry minutes this season, so the Warriors should not fold. The game plays slower than the headline number implies.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Spurs 113, Warriors 102
2. Best Bet: Under 219.5 total points

With Curry on the sideline and Wembanyama anchoring the paint, the total looks inflated by a Warriors offense that is not about to show up at full strength. Check the live NBA odds before tip-off to get the best number.