Houston vs Colorado Prediction: Cougars Cover in Boulder

Houston arrives in Boulder as a ten-point favorite with a Big 12 title chase still alive, while Colorado is playing to keep its bowl hopes from slipping away.

Quick take:

• Pick: Houston -9.5
• Why: The Cougars have the better quarterback, the better run game and a defense that rarely gives up big numbers, while Colorado cannot protect the football.
• The number to watch: Houston rushes for 203.5 yards a game; Colorado averages 140.

No. 14 Houston (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) is coming off a 31-24 win over Cincinnati, a game it settled when Re’Shaun Sanford II broke a 24-24 tie with a 51-yard touchdown run in the final minutes. Colorado (3-6, 1-5) dropped a 20-10 decision at Arizona State last week, and Deion Sanders has said plainly that his offensive game plan is not working.

It is also the first time these programs have met in Boulder. The series is tied 1-1, with Houston taking last season’s meeting 36-20 at TDECU Stadium.

Houston Is a Big Road Favorite on a Friday Night in Boulder

The market has Houston at -9.5 (-110), with Colorado at +9.5 (-110). The moneyline sits around Houston -385 and Colorado +310, and the total is 51.5, with the over at -105 and the under at -115. Those numbers imply roughly 29 points for the Cougars and 19 for the Buffaloes. If you are shopping for a number, our DraftKings promo code page covers the current welcome offer.

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Houston has won three of its last four and has scored 30 or more points in three straight games. Colorado has lost five of its last six, with a 27-24 win over Kansas State the lone bright spot in that stretch.

No meetings recorded yet between Houston Cougars and Colorado Buffaloes — we'll track this matchup starting with their next game.

Why Houston’s Balance Should Be Too Much for Colorado

Conner Weigman has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in the country, and he does it with both his arm and his legs. He has 22 touchdown passes and seven rushing scores this season, and he has thrown only two interceptions after nine a year ago. Last season against Colorado he ran for 83 yards and two touchdowns while throwing for 222. Sanders called him “phenomenal” this week, and the Buffaloes have allowed 21 touchdown passes, the second-most in the Big 12.

The ground game gives Houston a second way to win. Sanford, who has torn ligaments in both knees during his career, is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and ran for 126 yards against Cincinnati. As a team, the Cougars have 16 rushing touchdowns to Colorado’s nine. Colorado has been stingy near the goal line, allowing only five rushing scores, but Houston does not need to run it in from the one-yard line to move the ball.

Houston leads the Big 12 in third-down conversion rate at 59.3 percent, and Colorado has not forced a turnover in nearly a month.

That second point matters most. Colorado’s path to an upset runs through takeaways, and the Buffaloes have not produced any. Meanwhile, the quarterback tandem of Julian Lewis and Isaac Wilson has combined for 14 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, and Wilson’s one big play last week, a 74-yard touchdown, was erased by an illegal formation penalty.

Colorado does have a few things going for it. Receiver Joseph Williams has 853 yards, second in the Big 12, and defensive linemen Gideon Lampron and Santana Hopper rank first and second in the conference in tackles for loss. But Houston has allowed just 10 sacks, third-fewest in the league, so the Buffaloes will have to manufacture pressure.

On the other side, Houston’s defense has given up 21.3 points a game, its best mark since 2021, and it has allowed 30 points only once all year. Defensive back Jordan Allen, an LSU transfer, has 10 passes defended, second in the Big 12, and two of the Cougars’ eight interceptions. Cornerbacks Will James and Jalen Mayo have added a combined 17 more.

One caution for Houston backers: the Cougars have allowed 20 or more points in all but one road game this year, and Boulder at night is not an easy place to play. They also have West Virginia and Baylor left, so a letdown would be costly.

Prediction and Best Bet

Colorado is the more desperate team, but desperation has not fixed a turnover-prone offense or a defense that bends constantly. Houston’s balance, its third-down efficiency and its ability to hold the ball for long stretches should let it control the tempo, much as it did last season when it ran 53 times and held the ball for nearly 37 minutes. A Houston win by two touchdowns or more is the most likely outcome.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Houston 34, Colorado 17
2. Best Bet: Houston -9.5

The Cougars have the quarterback and the run game to make this spread look comfortable. Check live NCAAF odds before kickoff in case the number moves.