Predators vs Golden Knights Prediction: Under Looks Smart

Nashville shows up in Las Vegas on a six-game winning streak, with a penalty kill that has been nearly airtight and a goalie playing like a number one.

Quick take:

• Pick: Under 6.5 total goals
• Why: Nashville’s defense and penalty kill have squeezed opponents, and each of their last five games finished under its posted total.
• The number to watch: 89.5%, the Predators’ penalty kill rate, second best in the NHL.

The Nashville Predators (10-4-5) visit the Vegas Golden Knights (13-5-2) on Friday night at T-Mobile Arena, with puck drop set for 10:00 PM ET. On paper, this is a clash between two of the better records in the Western Conference. Nashville sits second in the Central Division, and Vegas is second in the Pacific.

The Golden Knights own the better record and the shinier star power. But the Predators arrive hotter. They have won six in a row, including a 3-0 shutout of the Kings on Tuesday and a 4-2 win in Anaheim on Wednesday.

Odds Say Vegas, but the Total Tells a Story

The market is leaning on the home team. Vegas is a moneyline favorite around -184, with Nashville sitting at roughly +152 to +156 depending on the book. The puck line has the Golden Knights laying 1.5 goals at plus money, while the Predators are priced as the heavier side of that same line. The game total is posted at 6.5 at most books, though a few shops have dipped to 5.5, which hints that bettors are expecting a tighter game than the number suggests.

If you are shopping for the best price on a number like this, it pays to compare lines across the major apps, and a new-user offer such as the DraftKings promo code can stretch a first wager further.

Recent Form

Here is how both teams have looked lately, plus what happened the last time they met.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Why Nashville Can Drag This Into the Mud

Start in goal. Juuse Saros is the probable starter for Nashville, carrying a .918 save percentage and a 2.42 goals-against average into the night. He stopped all 30 shots in the win over Los Angeles on Tuesday for his first shutout of the season. The Predators as a team allow just 2.63 goals per game, which ranks fifth in the league.

Then there is the penalty kill. Nashville has killed 51 of 57 chances, an 89.5% clip that is second in the NHL. That matters here because Vegas owns one of the league’s most dangerous power plays, converting at 27.9%. Something has to give, and the numbers suggest Nashville’s kill is the more durable unit. The Golden Knights’ own penalty kill, by contrast, sits at 76.9%, which is 18th in the league and a soft spot for a Nashville power play that clicks at 26.6%.

Each of Nashville’s last five games finished under its posted total.

That trend is not an accident. Nashville has leaned on tight, structured defense during this streak, allowing two goals or fewer in several of the wins, including 3-0 at Los Angeles and 4-2 at Anaheim, a game that stayed under 6.5.

Vegas has the firepower to push back, no question. Jack Eichel leads the Golden Knights with 26 points on nine goals and 17 assists, and Mitch Marner has piled up 23 points, most of them assists. The Golden Knights also have Mark Stone and Tomas Hertl in their top six. For Nashville, Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi each have 22 points, and Steven Stamkos leads the team with 11 goals.

The wrinkle on the Vegas side is the crease. Carter Hart carries a .896 save percentage on the season, while Adin Hill sits at .903. Either way, neither is playing at Saros’s level, which keeps a bit of scoring upside alive for the Predators. Even so, Vegas has not been a runaway offense lately. The Golden Knights are 5-3-2 over their last 10, and they dropped two games by identical 6-2 scores earlier in that stretch, a reminder that the volatility cuts both ways.

Special teams could also decide who controls the tempo. Both clubs have scored on better than a quarter of their power plays, but Nashville’s ability to keep Vegas from cashing in with the man advantage may be the difference between a one-goal game and a shootout. Goalie fatigue is another factor, since Vegas has rotated between Hart and Hill while Saros has made 13 starts.

Still, the more likely script is a game decided by special teams and goaltending, not an open track meet.

Prediction and Best Bet

Vegas has the better record, the home ice and the marquee names, so the Golden Knights get a narrow edge on the scoreboard. But Nashville’s streak, its goalie and its elite penalty kill point toward a game that stays tight and lower scoring than the 6.5 line implies.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Golden Knights 3, Predators 2
2. Best Bet: Under 6.5 total goals

With Saros in form, a Nashville penalty kill that rarely breaks and five straight unders in the Predators’ recent games, the cleanest path to cashing is the Under.