Vikings vs Chargers Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet for Thursday Night Football

The Minnesota Vikings head west tonight to take on the Los Angeles Chargers under the Thursday night lights at SoFi Stadium. This is one of those matchups that could really go either way on paper — but once you dig into the numbers a little closer, you will quickly realize that only one team is trending in the right direction.

Game Details — Injuries, Matchups, and Recent Form

Both teams are coming off big losses, but their situations feel very different despite the setbacks. The Vikings, sitting at 3-3, are hanging around in the NFC North with some serious competition, while the Chargers, at 4-3, are fighting to stay above .500 in a top-heavy AFC West.

Minnesota dropped a tight one to the Eagles, 28-22, while the Chargers looked lost at home in a 38-24 beatdown by Indi. Now, both teams are dealing with serious injuries that will shape how this TNF game plays out.

Carson Wentz is still starting at QB for the Vikings as rookie J.J. McCarthy remains out with an ankle injury. Wentz has been decent as he’s thrown 1,072 yards, 5 TDs, and 4 picks, but he hasn’t exactly lit up defenses as you might expect. His protection is pretty thin, and that is undoubtedly a contributing factor. Center Ryan Kelly is out again, and star left tackle Christian Darrisaw is questionable with a knee issue.

Despite the Vikings’ woes, the Chargers have problems on their offensive line, too. Both starting tackles — Joe Alt and Trey Pipkins III — are listed as questionable. That’s not ideal against a Minnesota defense that’s been the backbone of its limited success. Coordinator Brian Flores has built a unit that ranks in the top 10 in scoring, passing defense, and total yards allowed. They’re allowing just 20.8 PPG and are the 2nd-best team in the NFL at getting off the field on 3rd down, giving up just a 30.1% conversion rate. That’s going to make it tough for the Chargers to get on the board.

Justin Herbert, who, despite leading the NFL’s 2nd-best offense in terms of yardage with 390.7 per game, has struggled in high-leverage spots. On 3rd downs, he’s thrown 5 interceptions to go along with 5 TDs and has taken 5 sacks. To top that off, he’s completing just under 58% of his passes in those scenarios.

Still, Herbert’s numbers overall are generally impressive as he has 1,913 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 6 picks. A big part of that is his 420-yard game against Indianapolis last week, in which they still lost. He’s got plenty of weapons, including Keenan Allen, who needs just 8 more receptions to pass Antonio Gates for the most in Chargers history. Allen has feasted on the Vikings in the past, with 5 of his last 6 games against them featuring at least 8 catches.

Minnesota’s defense will need to rely on pressure to slow him down. This is especially true with the Chargers banged up up front. That puts Dallas Turner, the second-year LB, under the spotlight. With Andrew Van Ginkel out again, Turner needs to make an impact against a vulnerable offensive line. He’s only logged 1.5 sacks so far this season, but this is his best shot to have a breakout game.

There is a silver lining in all of this, the Vikings’ offense is about to get a boost with Aaron Jones trending toward returning after a 4-game absence. That’s huge and timed perfectly. Jones brings a dynamic element to the backfield that backup Jordan Mason, despite his 4 rushing TDs, doesn’t quite offer. Jones brings back the dual threat that the Vikings could use against a team like the Chargers. Minnesota ranks just 20th in rushing and 15th in scoring, but a healthy Jones would help take pressure off Wentz and allow more balance for the offense.

The Vikings undoubtedly have the edge on defense, but the Chargers have the more explosive offense, and it shows. They average 21.6 PPG but have underachieved in the red zone. They’ve also been inconsistent on defense, giving up 23.3 PPG and ranking 13th in total yards allowed, though they’ve allowed more total points with 163 than the Vikings, who have 125 over the same span.

Still, the Chargers have 5 players with 20+ receptions and enough weapons to overwhelm teams that can’t pressure Herbert. That’s been Minnesota’s calling card as they have multiple sacks in 10 straight games, the longest active streak in the league.

Betting Odds and Market Insight

The Chargers are 3.5-point favorites, with the total set at 44.5. The moneyline is currently Chargers -180, with the Vikings +150 as the underdog. Against the spread, Minnesota is 3-3, while the Chargers are just 2-4-1, failing to cover in 5 of their last 7 games.

That spread might be a little too generous considering the state of both offensive lines, which makes us hesitant on that bet. The Chargers have more firepower, yes, but if they can’t keep Herbert upright, that offense won’t click. Given the return of Jones for Minnesota, this could be a closer game than many expected.

Prediction and Best Bet

These teams are simply built very differently. The Chargers rely on chunk plays and shootouts, while the Vikings lean on their heavy defense and try to avoid mistakes. If Minnesota can win on 3rd downs and protect Wentz well enough, they’ll be in this game until the end. But asking that offensive line, without its center and possibly without its left tackle, to hold up for 4 full quarters on the road is a tall order.

• Chargers vs Vikings Score Prediction: Chargers 23, Vikings 20
• Best Bet: Take the Chargers Moneyline at -180

With Herbert playing at a higher level than Wentz, and Keenan Allen chasing history, we expect the Chargers to do just enough to escape with the win. It won’t be pretty, and it might take another big 4th quarter, but the home team has the edge in this one.