UFC 329 Prelims: 4 Undercard Sleeper Picks You Can’t Ignore

Everyone is locked in on Conor McGregor and Max Holloway running it back Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena, and rightfully so — UFC 329 is one of the biggest cards of the year. But if you tune in late and skip straight to the main card, you’re missing four prelim fights that could steal the show, deliver real betting value, and set up storylines that matter for months to come. The undercard is where the sharpest bettors find their edges, and this July 11 lineup is loaded with them.

Prelims get treated like an afterthought by casual fans, but they’re often where the most explosive finishes and the juiciest odds live. Books shade their lines toward name recognition and public perception, which means veteran name-value fighters sometimes get overpriced while dangerous finishers with real paths to victory get overlooked. That’s exactly the dynamic across all four of these matchups. Here’s a breakdown of each fight, why it matters, and where the value sits.

Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov: A Former Champion on the Brink

Robert Whittaker enters this one at 27-9 after dropping consecutive fights — a first-round submission to Khamzat Chimaev and a razor-thin split decision loss to Reinier de Ridder. That’s a rough stretch for a former UFC middleweight champion, and it’s part of why Whittaker still opens as the betting favorite against Nikita Krylov despite the skid. Krylov, meanwhile, sits at 31-11 and just snapped his own two-fight funk with a first-round knockout of Modestas Bukauskas back in January, a finish that reminded everyone why “The Miner” has some of the scariest hands in the light heavyweight division.

This fight is booked at light heavyweight, a notable jump for Whittaker, who has spent almost his entire career at middleweight. That kind of size and power disadvantage against a durable, heavy-handed veteran like Krylov is exactly the sort of matchup where an upset lives. Whittaker is still the better boxer and more well-rounded technician, but Krylov’s power and the size differential make this closer than the number suggests. If you’re looking for the sleeper pick of the prelims, Krylov at plus-money is the one to circle — the finishing power is live in every round.

Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison: The Most Hyped Debut of the Year

No prelim fighter walks in with more buzz than Gable Steveson. The 2020 Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling is 3-0 as a pro, with every single win coming by knockout or TKO in the first round. He trains at Jackson Wink under the guidance of Jon Jones, and after signing with the UFC in April, his long-awaited promotional debut finally arrives here. Sportsbooks have installed him as one of the heaviest favorites on the entire card, and it’s not hard to see why — his combination of elite wrestling pedigree and one-punch power has made him arguably the most talked-about heavyweight prospect in years.

Elisha Ellison, sitting at 5-2 in his own UFC run, has openly said he wants to “shock the world,” and while the moneyline offers almost nothing in value given how lopsided the number is, this fight is a legitimate lesson in why prelims matter: it’s the first live look at whether Steveson’s amateur wrestling dominance translates cleanly against a game professional. Rather than betting the moneyline outright, savvy bettors are looking at method-of-victory or round props here — Steveson’s finishing rate says this ends early, and betting the fight not going the distance is the more interesting angle than the straight win bet.

Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez: Name Value Meets Recent Form

Cody Garbrandt remains one of the most recognizable names in the bantamweight division, a former champion who is coming off a decision win over Xiao Long at UFC 326 in March. He sits at 15-7 overall, and even with the losses on his ledger, “No Love” still has knockout power that can change a fight in an instant. That’s precisely why the odds on this one carry appeal for underdog bettors — Garbrandt is priced as a significant plus-money dog against Adrian Yanez, but he’s never left the puncher’s chance behind.

Yanez, at 17-6-1, is the betting favorite here, and the market is leaning heavily on his recent form and counter-striking, which has given him success against durable veterans. But Yanez has also gone through a stretch of inconsistent results over his last several outings, including a draw and a couple of decision losses, which tempers some of the confidence in laying such a heavy number. This is the definition of a hidden gem on the card: two former or well-known fighters whose recent form points different directions than public perception. Garbrandt’s puncher’s chance makes him live value as a live underdog, especially if he can find range early.

Luke Riley vs. Kai Kamaka III: The Unbeaten Prospect’s Toughest Test

Luke Riley walks into UFC 329 still unbeaten at 13-0, and 2-0 inside the octagon with a first-round knockout of Bogdan Grad and a clean decision win over Michael Aswell already on his UFC résumé. The Liverpool product is the betting favorite against Kai Kamaka III, but this is by far the steepest step up in competition Riley has faced in the UFC to date. Kamaka brings real UFC pedigree at 18-7-1, with a run that dates back to 2020 and includes a Fight of the Night bonus in his promotional debut.

Kamaka’s ability to grind through three rounds and find success on the scorecards has kept him relevant through a long featherweight run, and he enters as a live underdog with the kind of experience that can expose a prospect who hasn’t been forced past the second round very often. Riley’s power and unbeaten record make him the more likely winner, but Kamaka’s veteran savvy and durability mean this is far from a formality — anyone doing their homework on the live UFC odds before fight night should keep an eye on how this line moves.

The Best Value Pick of the Prelims

When you stack these four fights together, the clearest value sits with Krylov’s live underdog price against a Whittaker who is moving up in weight and coming off two straight losses. Steveson’s debut is appointment viewing but offers little betting value on the moneyline itself, while Garbrandt’s puncher’s chance and Kamaka’s veteran grit both offer live-dog appeal worth a smaller-unit play. For bettors building out a card-long strategy, treating these prelims as more than a lead-in to the main event is exactly how sharper money finds its edge — and with new-user offers like the DraftKings promo code or the FanDuel promo code, there’s no shortage of ways to get a bet down on any of these matchups before the cage door closes.

Whichever way these four fights break, they’re a reminder that the real story of a UFC card often starts well before the walkout songs for the headliners. If you’re using a betting calculator to shop lines across books, these prelim underdogs are exactly where a little extra research pays off. And for anyone new to wagering on combat sports, checking a full sportsbook review before signing up ensures you’re betting with an operator that actually offers live odds on every fight on the card, prelims included.