Thunder Chasing Back-to-Back Championships: Suns vs Thunder Game 2 Prediction

Oklahoma City did not just beat Phoenix in Game 1 — they destroyed them. The Thunder won 119-84, a 35-point blowout that sent a statement to the rest of the NBA. Now Game 2 tips off tonight at 9:30 PM ET on ESPN from Paycom Center, and the Thunder have a chance to make this series very short indeed.

The Context: A Dynasty in the Making

The Oklahoma City Thunder finished the regular season 65-18 — the best record in the Western Conference. They are the defending champions making their third consecutive appearance as the #1 seed, and media outlets across the country have started using the word “dynasty” in the same sentence as OKC. They are that good. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns at 46-39 scraped into the playoffs as the 8th seed after winning the play-in tournament, including a win over the Golden State Warriors that showed they can compete. But competing and winning a series against this Thunder team are very different propositions.

Tonight’s Odds

The -2222 moneyline on the Thunder is one of the most lopsided numbers you will ever see in an NBA playoff game.

OKC -2222 moneyline, Phoenix +1120. The spread is OKC -17.5 with the total at 214.5. Oklahoma City’s home record this season was 34-7; Phoenix went 20-21 on the road. The numbers are brutal for anyone betting on the Suns to win outright.

Shai and Company

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having one of the great individual seasons in modern NBA history. His numbers: 31.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.6 assists per game on 55.3% field goal shooting and 38.6% from three. He has been on a historic scoring streak and he delivered again in Game 1, including a spectacular block late in the game to deny Oso Ighodaro a basket. Chet Holmgren gives OKC an elite two-way big man at 17.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. The Thunder won 5 of their 6 regular season matchups against Phoenix.

Can the Suns Cover?

Here is the real question heading into Game 2. Oklahoma City is 3-6 ATS when favored by 17.5 or more — but they have won every game in which they were this big a favorite. The Suns, meanwhile, went 48-34 ATS this season and have covered as big underdogs multiple times. Devin Booker and Kevin Durant (if healthy) are capable of putting up 50 or 60 combined points.

Teams typically respond better in Game 2 after being blown out — embarrassment is a powerful motivator. Phoenix got run off the floor in Game 1 but they are not a bad team. They beat a Warriors squad that won 50+ games in the play-in. They will be more competitive tonight.

Injuries

For Oklahoma City, Thomas Sorber is out for the season with a knee injury. For Phoenix, Jordan Goodwin is day-to-day with a calf injury and Mark Williams is questionable with a foot issue. The health of Kevin Durant remains worth monitoring throughout this series.

Prediction and Best Bet

OKC wins this game — that is not in question. SGA is playing at an elite level, the Thunder are at full strength, and Paycom Center will be as loud as any arena in the league. But the Suns will compete harder in Game 2 than they did in Game 1, and keeping it within 17.5 is a very realistic outcome.

• Prediction: Thunder 121, Suns 98
• Best Bet: Suns +17.5

Taking the Suns +17.5 offers the best value on the board tonight. The Thunder ML at -2222 essentially pays nothing. Meanwhile, Phoenix is motivated, capable of scoring, and historically good at covering as big underdogs. Predict OKC to win comfortably — but back the Suns to keep it within 17.5 and get paid for the cover.