The defending Super Bowl champions land in Las Vegas with a banged-up quarterback room, and the Raiders defense has surrendered 30 points six games running.
Quick take:
- Pick: Under 40.5 total points
- Why: Seattle’s defense is elite and Drew Lock’s offense runs on low-volume passing, which keeps the clock moving and the scoreboard quiet.
- The number to watch: Seattle has allowed just 162 points in nine games, sixth-fewest in the league.
The Seattle Seahawks (5-4) visit the Las Vegas Raiders (4-5) on Sunday, November 15, at Allegiant Stadium, with kickoff set for 4:05 PM ET on CBS. It will be Seattle’s first regular-season game at Allegiant Stadium, and only the fifth meeting between these teams since 2010.
The Seahawks come in off a 17-3 home win over the Arizona Cardinals, a bounce-back after a 34-17 Monday night loss to the Chicago Bears. The Raiders are coming off a 38-17 beating at the San Francisco 49ers, a game in which they turned the ball over on five of their six second-half possessions.
The quarterback picture is the story. Sam Darnold is out again with rib and quad injuries and could return for the Week 12 matchup with the 49ers. Drew Lock is expected to start despite an oblique and throwing-elbow issue, and he has already led Seattle to three of its five wins this season.
Seahawks Are a Touchdown Favorite, but the Market Has Moved
Seattle opened as a seven-point favorite, and the number has since slid to -6.5 as money came in on the Raiders. The moneyline sits around Seahawks -298 and Raiders +240 at DraftKings. The bigger move is on the total, which opened at 43.5 and has dropped three full points to 40.5. The market is telling you it expects a low-scoring, grind-it-out game.
| Sunday, November 15 at 4:05 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Seattle Seahawks | 
-6.5 (-114) | 
-280 |
O 40.5 (-108) |
| Las Vegas Raiders |
+6.5 (-114) | 
+250 |
U 40.5 (-113) |
Recent Form
Seattle has been far better at home than on the road, and the Raiders have struggled against anyone with a winning record. Here is how both sides have looked lately and how they have fared against each other.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Arizona Cardinals | -9.5 / 38.5 | Won 17-3 | Won / Under |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Chicago Bears | +3.5 / 43.5 | Lost 17-34 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @Denver Broncos | +7.5 / 42.5 | Lost 17-14 | Won / Under |
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Francisco 49ers | -3.5 / 50.5 | Lost 29-32 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Los Angeles Chargers | -10 / 43 | Won 30-23 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @Washington Commanders | -7.5 / 37.5 | Lost 33-31 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @Arizona Cardinals | -4.5 / 43.5 | Won 7-31 | Won / Under |
| Sep 10, 2026 | New England Patriots | +7.5 / 34.5 | Won 13-10 | Won / Under |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @San Francisco 49ers | -2.5 / 48.5 | Won 3-13 | Won / Under |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @Carolina Panthers | -6.5 / 42.5 | Won 10-27 | Won / Under |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | @San Francisco 49ers | +14.5 / 59.5 | Lost 38-17 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @New York Jets | +2.5 / 47.5 | Won 33-38 | Won / Over |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Buffalo Bills | +6.5 / 55.5 | Lost 30-33 | Won / Over |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @New England Patriots | +5.5 / 51.5 | Lost 45-17 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs | +3.5 / 47.5 | Lost 27-30 | Won / Over |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @New Orleans Saints | +1.5 / 44.5 | Won 27-35 | Won / Over |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @Los Angeles Chargers | +6.5 / 43.5 | Won 14-26 | Won / Under |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Miami Dolphins | -10.5 / 38.5 | Won 27-13 | Won / Over |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs | +3.5 / 35.5 | Won 14-12 | Won / Under |
| Dec 28, 2025 | New York Giants | +3 / 40.5 | Lost 10-34 | Lost / Over |
Showing 2 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2022 | Seattle Seahawks | @Las Vegas Raiders | -4 / 47.5 | Lost 34-40 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 14, 2018 | Las Vegas Raiders | @Seattle Seahawks | +3 / 48 | Lost 3-27 | Lost / Under |
Why Seattle’s Defense Drives This Total
Seattle ranks first in the NFL in total yards allowed and second in passing yards allowed, and it is second in third-down defense at 30.6 percent. That unit is the reason the Seahawks are 5-4 despite an offense that has leaned heavily on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has already piled up 1,036 receiving yards and nine touchdowns through nine games. Lock has said that when defenses focus their coverage on Smith-Njigba, he is staying disciplined with his progressions rather than forcing throws.
Lock has not exceeded 29.5 pass attempts in 11 straight games, averaging just 11.9 attempts per game in that stretch.
That low-volume approach keeps the clock running and limits possessions. Seattle’s ground game, led by Emanuel Wilson’s 403 rushing yards, is built to do the same.
Las Vegas has been the opposite story on defense. The Raiders have allowed 30 or more points in six straight games, and their run defense has been a weak spot, which is where Seattle can do damage. But the Raiders’ offense under Klint Kubiak has been far more functional than last year’s, with Kirk Cousins throwing three touchdowns and running for another in a 38-33 win over the Jets, and Brock Bowers (658 receiving yards) remaining the most dangerous weapon on the field.
The problem for Las Vegas is the matchup. Seattle’s defense allows just 22.2 yards per drive, the best mark in the league, and the Raiders have lost 17 straight games against teams with a winning record. Expect Las Vegas to lean on a short passing game to Bowers and Tre Tucker rather than push the ball downfield into that pass defense.
Seattle has its own concerns up front. Quenton Nelson and Leonard Williams missed practice early in the week, and Charles Cross has been managing an ankle issue. That could make it harder for the Seahawks to pull away, which is part of why the total looks more appealing than laying nearly a touchdown. If you want to put a bet on this game, check the latest DraftKings promo code offer first.
On history, the Raiders lead the regular-season series 29-25, and the last meeting was a wild 40-34 overtime win for Las Vegas in November 2022. This one looks like it will play out very differently.
You can also compare lines on the live NFL odds page before kickoff, since the spread has already moved a half-point off its opener.
Prediction and Best Bet
Seattle should win because its defense is the better unit by a wide margin, and the Raiders have not beaten a team with a winning record in 17 tries. But covering 6.5 with a hobbled quarterback and an offense that does not push the ball is a harder ask than it looks. The cleaner angle is the total: two teams that want to control the clock, one elite defense, and a Raiders offense that has been prone to turnovers rather than big plays lately.
The pick:
- Prediction: Seahawks 23, Raiders 14
- Best Bet: Under 40.5 total points
Seattle’s defense and Lock’s short-passing style point to a slow game, and a 37-point final would cash this ticket with room to spare.
