The best record in the NFC walks into AT&T Stadium to face a Dallas offense that piles up yards by the truckload and still can’t stop leaking points.
Quick take:
- Pick: Over 55.5 total points
- Why: Dallas has been one of the league’s weakest defenses against both the run and the scoreboard, while San Francisco is scoring nearly 30 points a game.
- The number to watch: 508 yards for Dallas against Indianapolis, and still only 27 points.
The San Francisco 49ers (7-1) arrive in Arlington for a Week 10 meeting with the Dallas Cowboys (4-5) on Sunday, November 15, at 4:25 PM ET on FOX. It is the first time the Niners have played a regular-season game in Dallas since 2020, and they have beaten the Cowboys four straight times, including two playoff wins.
The matchup looks lopsided on paper, but the total is the more interesting question. It is the highest number on the Week 10 board, and the injury reports on both sides cut in different directions.
Niners Laying Points in Dallas: Where the Market Sits
San Francisco is a road favorite of roughly four to 4.5 points depending on the book, with moneylines in the neighborhood of -205 to -225 for the 49ers and +170 to +185 for Dallas. The total sits at 55.5 at most shops, with a couple of books at 56, after opening at 52.5. That climb tells you which way the money has leaned. Anyone comparing prices before kickoff can check the DraftKings promo code offer or shop around, since half a point on a number like this matters.
| Sunday, November 15 at 4:25 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| San Francisco 49ers | 
-4.5 (100) | 
-205 | 
O 56 (-108) |
| Dallas Cowboys |
+4.5 (-120) | 
+183 |
U 55.5 (-112) |
Recent Form
San Francisco has won four of its last five and comes off a 38-17 win over the Las Vegas Raiders after the bye week. Dallas snapped a skid with a 27-23 win at Indianapolis, one week after blowing a 14-point lead and losing in overtime to Arizona at home. The tables below show how each side has trended and what the history between them looks like.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Las Vegas Raiders | -14.5 / 59.5 | Won 38-17 | Won / Under |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Washington Commanders | -13.5 / 50.5 | Won 23-17 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @Seattle Seahawks | +3.5 / 50.5 | Won 29-32 | Won / Over |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Denver Broncos | +1.5 / 37.5 | Won 24-14 | Won / Over |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Arizona Cardinals | -7.5 / 48.5 | Won 36-30 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Miami Dolphins | -18 / 43 | Won 35-13 | Won / Over |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @Los Angeles Rams | +5.5 / 46.5 | Won 7-27 | Won / Under |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Seattle Seahawks | +2.5 / 48.5 | Lost 3-13 | Lost / Under |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Chicago Bears | -4.5 / 51.5 | Won 42-38 | Lost / Over |
| Dec 23, 2025 | @Indianapolis Colts | -4.5 / 46.5 | Won 27-48 | Won / Over |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | @Indianapolis Colts | -6.5 / 51.5 | Won 23-27 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Arizona Cardinals | -7.5 / 55.5 | Lost 30-33 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @Philadelphia Eagles | -3.5 / 59.5 | Won 21-38 | Won / Under |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @Green Bay Packers | +6.5 / 48.5 | Lost 23-13 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -3.5 / 45.5 | Lost 16-24 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @Houston Texans | +6.5 / 52.5 | Won 30-34 | Won / Over |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Baltimore Ravens | +3.5 / 64 | Lost 31-34 | Won / Over |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Washington Commanders | -13.5 / 53.5 | Won 37-20 | Won / Over |
| Sep 14, 2026 | @New York Giants | +2.5 / 42.5 | Lost 28-20 | Lost / Over |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @New York Giants | -3 / 50.5 | Lost 34-17 | Lost / Over |
Showing 4 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2024 | San Francisco 49ers | @Dallas Cowboys | -5.5 / 47.5 | Won 30-24 | Won / Over |
| Oct 9, 2023 | San Francisco 49ers | @Dallas Cowboys | -3.5 / 45 | Won 42-10 | Won / Over |
| Dec 20, 2020 | Dallas Cowboys | @San Francisco 49ers | +3.5 / 45.5 | Won 41-33 | Won / Over |
| Oct 22, 2017 | San Francisco 49ers | @Dallas Cowboys | +0.5 / 50.5 | Lost 10-40 | Lost / Under |
Why the Scoreboard Should Keep Moving
Start with Dallas, because the Cowboys are an odd case: a team that wins the stat sheet and struggles on the scoreboard. Against the Colts, Dallas outgained Indianapolis 508 yards to 271, averaged 7.2 yards per play and held the ball for nearly 36 minutes. Dak Prescott went 21 of 34 for 335 yards and two touchdowns, and CeeDee Lamb caught 10 passes for 195 yards and a score. Javonte Williams added 101 yards on the ground. The Cowboys have scored 246 points through nine games, so the offense is producing. The defense is the problem. Dallas entered Week 8 ranked last against the run and 24th in points allowed per game, and it has now surrendered 236 points.
The 49ers have been better at both ends. They have scored 235 points and allowed 156, a net of plus-79, and they are 5-0 at home and 2-1 on the road. Brock Purdy reached 100 career touchdown passes against Las Vegas, getting there in 57 games, the fastest in franchise history. Christian McCaffrey scored a rushing touchdown and caught a touchdown pass in the same game. Against a run defense that has been among the league’s softest, that is a tough draw for Dallas.
Dallas outgained its last opponent by 237 yards and won by only four points, a clear sign this offense moves the ball but the defense gives it right back.
Injuries muddy the picture on both sides. The 49ers lost defensive tackle Gracen Halton to a season-ending ankle injury against the Raiders, and cornerback Renardo Green has been dealing with a back issue. The receiver room is thin, with Christian Kirk on injured reserve and Deebo Samuel Sr. and Mike Evans appearing on the injury report. That is part of why depth options like Jordan Watkins, who caught a 37-yard touchdown last week, have mattered.
Dallas has its own list. Running back Tyler Goodson is out with a knee injury, and George Pickens, Joey Porter Jr., DeMarvion Overshown and KaVontae Turpin have all shown up as questionable. San Francisco’s defense, meanwhile, just forced five takeaways in a single half.
Short version: both offenses can score, and neither defense is healthy.
Prediction and Best Bet
San Francisco is the better, healthier and more balanced team, and the market agrees, putting the Niners at roughly a two-thirds chance to win. But the spread already prices that in, and Dallas is dangerous enough through the air to keep this within a possession or two. With the total at 55.5 and two defenses that are both banged up, the over is where the value is. The Niners win, and both teams get into the high 20s or better.
The pick:
- Prediction: 49ers 31, Cowboys 27
- Best Bet: Over 55.5 total points
Dallas moves the ball at will and cannot get stops, and San Francisco has the firepower to take advantage of that all afternoon. Expect points on both ends.
