The league’s highest-scoring offense heads to MetLife Stadium to face a Jets team that has lost four straight and cannot get off the field on third down.
Quick take:
- Pick: Over 50.5 total points
- Why: Buffalo scores 32 points a game, and the Jets’ run defense gives the Bills a runway to keep the ball and score.
- The number to watch: 128 rushing yards allowed per game by the Jets, 26th in the NFL.
Buffalo is 7-1, tied for the best record in the NFL and off to its best start since 1993. First-year head coach Joe Brady has the Bills leading the league in points per game (32.0) and total yards (386.4 per game), and they just ground out a 23-6 Monday night win in Minnesota on a short week.
The Jets are 2-7 and coming off a 35-12 loss at Kansas City. Aaron Glenn’s team is searching for answers, and a late bye in Week 13 means there is no relief coming soon.
How the Betting Market Sees Bills vs Jets
The line has moved toward Buffalo all week. The Bills opened as 7-point favorites and have bounced between 7.5 and 8.5 depending on the book, with the moneyline sitting around Bills -520 and Jets +390 at DraftKings. The bigger story is the total: it opened at 46.5 and has climbed to 50.5 after Buffalo’s offense kept humming against Minnesota. If you want to compare numbers before kickoff, check a DraftKings promo code offer or browse the live NFL odds page.
| Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Buffalo Bills | 
-8.5 (-105) | 
-420 |
O 51 (-106) |
| New York Jets |
+8.5 (-115) | 
+350 | 
U 50.5 (-109) |
Recent Form
Buffalo has won seven of eight and covered six of those games. The Jets have dropped four in a row, and just two of their seven losses have come by more than one score.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2026 | @Minnesota Vikings | -3.5 / 35.5 | Won 6-23 | Won / Under |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Baltimore Ravens | -6.5 / 58.5 | Won 36-10 | Won / Under |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @Las Vegas Raiders | -6.5 / 55.5 | Won 30-33 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @Los Angeles Rams | -1.5 / 55.5 | Won 34-37 | Won / Over |
| Oct 4, 2026 | New England Patriots | -5.5 / 48.5 | Lost 26-29 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Los Angeles Chargers | -2.5 / 55.5 | Won 24-16 | Won / Under |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Detroit Lions | -18.5 / 62.5 | Won 41-31 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @Houston Texans | +2.5 / 42.5 | Won 31-36 | Won / Over |
| Jan 4, 2026 | New York Jets | -13.5 / 39.5 | Won 35-8 | Won / Over |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Philadelphia Eagles | -3.5 / 45.5 | Lost 12-13 | Lost / Under |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | @Kansas City Chiefs | +7.5 / 47.5 | Lost 35-12 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Las Vegas Raiders | -2.5 / 47.5 | Lost 33-38 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @New England Patriots | +6.5 / 42.5 | Lost 26-19 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cleveland Browns | -4 / 34.5 | Won 17-12 | Won / Under |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @Chicago Bears | +7.5 / 47.5 | Lost 23-12 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @Detroit Lions | +7.5 / 44.5 | Lost 31-24 | Won / Over |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Green Bay Packers | +2.5 / 43.5 | Lost 17-20 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @Tennessee Titans | -4 / 44.5 | Won 10-23 | Won / Under |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @Buffalo Bills | +13.5 / 39.5 | Lost 35-8 | Lost / Over |
| Dec 28, 2025 | New England Patriots | +12.5 / 42.5 | Lost 10-42 | Lost / Over |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | Buffalo Bills | @New York Jets | -13.5 / 39.5 | Won 35-8 | Won / Over |
| Sep 14, 2025 | New York Jets | @Buffalo Bills | +5.5 / 46.5 | Lost 10-30 | Lost / Under |
| Dec 29, 2024 | Buffalo Bills | @New York Jets | -10.5 / 44.5 | Won 40-14 | Won / Over |
| Oct 15, 2024 | New York Jets | @Buffalo Bills | +1.5 / 42.5 | Lost 20-23 | Lost / Over |
| Nov 19, 2023 | Buffalo Bills | @New York Jets | -8 / 39.5 | Won 32-6 | Won / Under |
| Sep 12, 2023 | New York Jets | @Buffalo Bills | +2.5 / 44.5 | Won 22-16 | Won / Under |
| Dec 11, 2022 | Buffalo Bills | @New York Jets | -9.5 / 44 | Won 20-12 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 6, 2022 | New York Jets | @Buffalo Bills | +10.5 / 46 | Won 20-17 | Won / Under |
| Jan 9, 2022 | Buffalo Bills | @New York Jets | -16 / 43 | Won 27-10 | Won / Under |
| Nov 14, 2021 | New York Jets | @Buffalo Bills | +13.5 / 48.5 | Lost 17-45 | Lost / Over |
Why Buffalo’s Ground Game Drives This Matchup
James Cook is the engine. He carried 31 times for 107 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings, sits fifth in the NFL with 814 rushing yards, and has found the end zone in seven straight games while topping 75 yards. That is the first Bills player to do so, and the first in the NFL since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006.
Now put that against the Jets’ defense, which ranks 26th against the run at 128 yards per game. Josh Allen adds another wrinkle: he leads all NFL quarterbacks with 285 rushing yards, so New York has to account for him on every snap. Through the air, Allen has 12 touchdown passes and a 99.3 rating, and tight end Dalton Kincaid has 30 catches for 429 yards as a reliable target when the offense needs a chunk play.
Buffalo has beaten the Jets five straight times, including 35-8 on January 4, and the Jets are 26th against the run.
The Jets’ problem is on the other side of the ball. In Kansas City they managed only 229 yards, went 2-for-12 on third down, and kicked four field goals without finding the end zone. Geno Smith has been sacked 28 times this season, and Buffalo’s Greg Rousseau has eight sacks of his own, tied for second in the league.
It is not all bleak for New York. Rookie receiver Omar Cooper Jr. has 306 yards and two touchdowns in five games, and Garrett Wilson (concussion protocol) and Cooper (ankle) were limited at practice, so both bear watching. Even so, this offense averages just 20.2 points per game.
Buffalo has its own questions up front. Left tackle Dion Dawkins and left guard Alec Anderson both returned to practice after missing the Vikings game, and both are listed as questionable. Cornerback Christian Benford (wrist) is questionable too. A shaky line against a Jets front that has pressure ability is the clearest path to an upset.
Special teams deserve a mention too. Bills kicker Tyler Bass has made a franchise-record 24 consecutive field goals, which means drives that stall inside the 40 still turn into points. Buffalo also added safety Amani Hooker, who is tied for the NFL lead with five interceptions, in a deadline trade, and he is in line to start next to Cole Bishop.
Prediction and Best Bet
The Bills are the better team by a wide margin, and the 7.5 to 8.5 points the market asks you to lay is steep for a road divisional game. The total is the cleaner angle. Buffalo has the NFL’s top-ranked scoring offense, the Jets rank near the bottom against the run, and Buffalo’s short turnaround matters less when it controls the clock. The line has moved four points since opening, so the easy value is gone, but the matchup still points to a Bills team that scores in the high 20s or better.
The pick:
- Prediction: Bills 31, Jets 20
- Best Bet: Over 50.5 total points
Buffalo does most of the scoring on its own, and the Jets only need a couple of touchdowns to push this past the number. Shop for the best total before you bet, and play responsibly.
