Rays vs Guardians Prediction: ALCS Game 5 Picks and Best Bet for October 18

The Rays finally got their best hitters going on Saturday, and now the ALCS turns into a best-of-three with Drew Rasmussen back on the mound in Cleveland.

Quick take:

• Pick: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline
• Why: Rasmussen is carrying a 1.29 postseason ERA into a rematch with a Cleveland lineup that now has to solve him twice in one series.
• The number to watch: Rasmussen’s 0.79 WHIP across 14 postseason innings.

Game 5 of the American League Championship Series is set for Sunday, October 18 at Progressive Field, with first pitch around 5:00 PM ET on TBS. The series is tied 2-2 after Tampa Bay’s 7-3 win in Game 4 on Saturday night, and the winner will be one victory from the pennant, with the series shifting back to St. Petersburg on Monday.

Cleveland (85-77) is the lower seed on paper, but the Guardians stunned the 98-win Rays with a 7-3 victory in Game 1, and they are a team that already climbed out of an 0-2 hole against the White Sox in the Division Series. Tampa Bay (98-64) answered by scoring five runs over the final three innings Saturday, helped along by a pair of Guardians defensive mistakes.

Why the Rays Are Slight Road Favorites at Progressive Field

The market is giving Tampa Bay a narrow edge even on the road. The Rays are listed around -128 on the moneyline against Cleveland at roughly +100 to +109, with the total set at 6.5 runs. That price tells you oddsmakers are leaning on the pitching matchup more than home-field advantage, and it is not a huge premium either way. A short favorite with a clear starter edge is exactly the kind of spot worth a closer look, and you can compare prices at your book using the live MLB odds page.

Recent Form

Both clubs come in with a split series and a lot of questions about which offense shows up. The form and head-to-head data below shows how each team has been trending heading into the first of three games that could decide the pennant.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Rasmussen’s Rematch and a Rays Lineup That Woke Up

Rasmussen opened the series and was good, not great, in Game 1. He went six-plus innings, allowed two runs on eight hits and struck out seven before Chase DeLauter and Patrick Bailey homered off him. That was the only real blemish in an otherwise dominant October. He took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Yankees in the Division Series, and his postseason line sits at 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 17 strikeouts against just two walks.

The bigger story for Tampa Bay is the lineup. Through the first three games, the top four hitters, Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Chandler Simpson and Junior Caminero, went 7-for-41 with three RBI. In Game 4 they combined for six hits and six RBI. Aranda, who had been 0-for-10, finished with three hits and two driven in. If that group stays hot, the Rays’ offense, which ranked fifth in MLB in wRC+ during the regular season, looks a lot more like itself.

Rasmussen has allowed just 9 hits and 2 walks in 14 postseason innings, a 0.79 WHIP that Cleveland has to beat.

Cleveland counters with lefty Parker Messick, who grew up a Rays fan in Plant City, Florida. He is 0-2 with a 3.09 ERA in the playoffs but a 1.71 WHIP, and he has issued eight walks in 11 2/3 innings. That walk rate is the opening Tampa Bay needs.

Messick was a strong 12-9 with a 2.56 ERA in the regular season, so a quality start is entirely possible, but the traffic he has allowed in October is a real concern against a lineup that has just snapped out of its funk. The Guardians have their own weapons. Jose Ramirez and DeLauter each had three hits in Game 1, and rookie Travis Bazzana hit his first postseason home run in Game 4. Cleveland’s defense, though, cost it in the seventh Saturday, when a ground ball got past DeLauter in right field and led to two Rays runs. In a series this tight, those mistakes decide games.

There is also a scheduling wrinkle worth noting. Friday’s rainout pushed the series into four straight days of baseball if it goes the distance, which is why Game 1 starters Rasmussen and Messick are both able to return on normal rest for Game 5. Neither bullpen has had much time to breathe, and Cleveland used an opener, Shawn Armstrong, followed by Foster Griffin in Game 4, so the relievers who matter most late in this one will likely be used heavily again.

Prediction and Best Bet

Rasmussen is the best pitcher on the field, the Rays’ bats are trending the right way, and Messick has struggled with command in the postseason. Cleveland’s home crowd keeps this close, but Tampa Bay’s starting pitching edge is the separator, and it is worth backing at a short price.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Rays 5, Guardians 3
2. Best Bet: Rays on the moneyline

Take the ace in a pivotal spot and let the pitching edge do the work.