Prediction Markets Have Carlos Alcaraz as a Massive Favorite Over Yibing Wu at the US Open

Carlos Alcaraz is barely being treated as an underdog in this one — he’s not being treated as one at all. As the defending US Open champion heads into his third-round match against Yibing Wu on Friday at Arthur Ashe Stadium, prediction markets and sportsbooks alike are lined up almost entirely on one side.

Polymarket has Alcaraz at a 92.5% implied probability to win, with Wu sitting at just 7.5%. That’s not a small gap — it’s one of the more lopsided lines you’ll see in a Grand Slam round of 32, and it lines up with what traditional books are showing too.

What the Odds Are Saying

DraftKings has Alcaraz priced at -1060 on the moneyline, with Wu out at a hefty +870. Flashscore’s pre-match numbers tell the same story, with Alcaraz around 1.04 and Wu near 10.10. The total games line sits at 31.5, with the over at -125 and the under at -115 — a number that suggests bettors expect this one to be competitive in stretches even if the outcome isn’t seriously in doubt.

For context on how lines like this move throughout a tournament, Hello Rookie’s live sports betting odds hub tracks shifts across majors as new information comes in.

Why Alcaraz Is Such a Heavy Favorite

The case for Alcaraz starts with the résumé. He’s the No. 2 seed and world No. 3, carrying a 24-3 record in 2026 and defending the US Open title he won last year — his second in as many appearances in the final (2022, 2025). Across his career, he’s 165-46 on hard courts, a surface where his game has become nearly automatic against anyone outside the top handful of players in the world.

He got to this round by beating Jaime Faria in four sets in the second round, a match where he only needed three aces and committed four double faults — hardly a vintage serving day, and he still cruised through. At 23 years old with seven Grand Slam titles already on his résumé, Alcaraz has reached the point where a third-round matchup against an unseeded opponent is treated as a formality by the betting markets, even if the tennis itself still has to be played.

Wu’s Case for an Upset

Yibing Wu isn’t just showing up, though. Ranked No. 113 in the world with a modest overall season record, the 26-year-old has been the surprise of the tournament’s first week. He knocked off Adam Walton 7-6(2), 6-2, 7-5 and then handled James Duckworth 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 — two wins, zero sets dropped. He blistered 12 aces past Duckworth, a sign his serve has real teeth right now.

Wu’s previous best at the US Open was a third-round exit back in 2022, when he lost in straight sets to Daniil Medvedev. Making it back this far, and doing it without needing a fourth or fifth set in either match, suggests his game — particularly a big first serve — is clicking at the right time. The two have met once before, at the Shanghai Masters in October 2024, where Alcaraz won in straight sets, 7-6(5), 6-3, in exactly 100 minutes. It wasn’t a blowout, but it also wasn’t especially close.

Prediction and What the Market Tells Us

Both players are working on a single day of rest, so fatigue shouldn’t be a major swing factor. What likely decides this is whether Wu’s serve holds up against a player who has seen — and solved — bigger tests than this all season. Alcaraz’s level, his surface dominance, and his title-defense motivation all point toward a win, and the market’s 92.5% number reflects that reasonably well given the talent and form gap.

Expect Alcaraz to advance in four sets, with Wu’s serve keeping him competitive for stretches but not enough to change the outcome. If there’s value anywhere in this matchup for bettors watching the market, it’s less about the moneyline — which offers little payoff at -1060 — and more about the total games number, where Wu’s aggressive serving and Alcaraz’s inconsistent recent aces-to-double-faults ratio could push this match past 31.5 games. Bettors comparing lines across sportsbooks can check DraftKings promo code offers before placing anything on this one.