Prediction Markets Capture 27% of US Sports Betting During World Cup

Prediction markets have officially arrived as a serious threat to the traditional sportsbook industry. New data shows platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket captured roughly 27% of all legal U.S. sports-betting volume tied to the World Cup, a staggering jump from just 9% at the start of the year, according to estimates from H2 Gambling Capital cited by Bloomberg.

The tournament gave these exchange-style platforms their biggest stage yet, and they didn’t just show up — they outpaced the sportsbooks in ways few expected even a year ago.

Kalshi Outdraws DraftKings and FanDuel

Kalshi didn’t just grow during the World Cup — it shattered its own records repeatedly. The platform’s trading volume during the tournament more than doubled the peak it had already hit during the New York Knicks’ playoff run, and volume ran nearly 10 times higher than at various points earlier in the year. Perhaps most striking: data from Apptopia showed Kalshi had more daily active users on its mobile app during the World Cup than either DraftKings or FanDuel, the two largest legal sportsbooks in the country.

That’s a dramatic shift for an industry that, less than two years ago, wasn’t even allowed to offer sports-tied contracts. As recently as last summer, many sportsbook executives waved off prediction markets as a niche experiment facing steep regulatory hurdles. The World Cup made that dismissal look premature.

Why the Rules Are Different

Kalshi and Polymarket operate under oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission rather than state gaming regulators, and that distinction matters. Federally regulated exchanges can serve customers in states where traditional sports betting remains illegal, and they generally allow participation starting at age 18, compared to the 21-and-over standard most sportsbooks require. That regulatory gap has let prediction markets expand into territory sportsbooks simply can’t reach.

The product lineup has also started to look a lot more familiar to bettors. One of the fastest-growing offerings during the tournament was the “combo” contract — essentially a prediction-market version of the parlay, letting traders stack multiple outcomes into a single, higher-risk position. Even though these platforms have long insisted they facilitate trading rather than profit off customer losses like a bookmaker, the World Cup made clear just how closely their products now resemble a traditional wager.

Sportsbook Stocks Take a Hit

The competitive pressure showed up on Wall Street, too. Shares of DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment, FanDuel’s parent company, rallied heading into the World Cup on expectations of a betting surge, but both stocks retreated as the tournament played out. Both are now down more than 25% on the year.

FanDuel told Bloomberg it couldn’t discuss market dynamics ahead of its upcoming financial results, but noted the World Cup generated record customer engagement, with its ten highest-handled soccer matches in company history all occurring during the tournament. Still, FanDuel’s own standalone prediction-market app has so far gained limited traction, per Apptopia data — suggesting sportsbooks entering this space themselves face an uphill climb against Kalshi’s head start.

Bettors comparing options across formats can check current live sports betting odds alongside the newer event-contract platforms to see how pricing stacks up heading into the next major event.

Kalshi Widens Its Lead Over Polymarket

Within the prediction-market world itself, Kalshi has clearly separated from the pack. According to user-compiled data from Dune Analytics, Kalshi generated more than twice the World Cup trading volume of Polymarket, once considered the dominant player in the space. Polymarket has also dealt with legal challenges, operational setbacks, and delays in expanding its U.S. footprint — friction that’s let Kalshi pull ahead domestically even as Polymarket remains a global heavyweight.

The field is getting more crowded, too. A new prediction-market platform backed by Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group launched and pulled in notable trading activity during the tournament, adding another name to a sector that barely existed in its current form a year ago.

What Comes Next

Analysts caution against overreacting to the numbers. “It’s pretty clear that prediction markets have had a very good World Cup,” said Ed Birkin, managing director at H2 Gambling Capital. “I think they are less of a threat than some people make out, but they are definitely eating around the edges, and these customers will allow them to continue growing their business.”

Ian Moore, an analyst at Bernstein, framed it as a wake-up call for the incumbents. “The growth has put feet to the fire for these traditional sportsbooks to start offering a similar service,” he said. “It’s a new opportunity for everyone.”

With World Cup activity now cooling following the championship match, the real test for Kalshi and its rivals is retention — whether the millions of new users who tried prediction markets during the tournament stick around once the marquee event fades from the calendar. Kalshi has managed that trick before, sustaining growth after the Super Bowl by leaning on its wider menu of non-sports contracts. Whether that playbook holds without a global tournament driving traffic remains the open question for the rest of the year.