Pirates vs. White Sox Prediction: Can Chicago Avoid the Sweep Behind Rookie Ace Hagen Smith?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have already taken the first two games of this series at Rate Field, and now they’re set to face the one White Sox arm that’s looked untouchable all season.

Quick take:

• Pick: White Sox +1.5
• Why: Hagen Smith’s 0.56 ERA is enough to snap a series sweep bid, even with Chicago reeling
• The number to watch: Smith has struck out 23 batters in just 16 career innings

Pittsburgh enters Thursday at 73-73 and, believe it or not, the hottest team in the series — the Pirates have won 8 of their last 10 and have already put up 9 runs and 4 runs in the first two games of this set. Chicago, meanwhile, has completely stalled down the stretch, dropping 7 of its last 10 despite still sitting atop the AL Central at 75-70.

A Series the White Sox Need to Salvage

Chicago opened the series getting rocked 9-3, then dropped a tighter 4-2 decision, and the vibes at Rate Field have been tense enough that benches and bullpens cleared during the second game. Checking the MLB odds board, the market still likes the White Sox to avoid the sweep, with the line sitting right around a pick’em on the moneyline and Chicago getting +1.5 on the run line at most books, with the total set at 7.5.

Recent Form

The gap between these two teams over the last 10 games tells almost the opposite story of the season-long standings.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Jared Jones vs. the Rookie Who Hasn’t Lost Since His Debut

Jared Jones takes the ball for Pittsburgh at 3-6 with a 4.46 ERA, solid enough but hardly dominant. The real story is on the other side. Hagen Smith debuted for Chicago on August 9 and has been nearly untouchable since, going 3-1 with a microscopic 0.56 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP across 10 starts. He’s punched out 23 hitters in only 16 innings, and Statcast has him generating a 37.1% strikeout rate that dwarfs the league average.

Smith has allowed opposing hitters a .209 wOBA in his young career — nearly 110 points below the league mark.

That kind of swing-and-miss stuff is exactly what a slumping lineup needs to find a spark. Pittsburgh’s offense has been raking of late — Bryan Reynolds and a healthy Konnor Griffin, back from a 60-day IL stint for a torn sagittal band in his finger, give the Pirates more thump than they’ve had most of the summer. But facing a starter with Smith’s swing-and-miss stuff is a different animal than facing whatever Chicago threw out the first two nights.

Chicago’s lineup is banged up. Ryan O’Hearn (quad), Joey Bart (hand) and Tommy Pham (calf) are all out, and closer Kirby Yates is shelved with a shoulder issue too. That’s a real dent in the middle of their order and their bullpen depth, which matters if this game turns into a late-inning battle.

Prediction and Best Bet

Pittsburgh’s bats have carried them to two straight wins in this series, but Hagen Smith is a different challenge than what they’ve seen so far, and he’s shown zero signs of slowing down since his debut. Expect Chicago to avoid the sweep behind their rookie ace, even if the Pirates make it competitive late.

The pick:

1. Prediction: White Sox 4, Pirates 3
2. Best Bet: White Sox +1.5

Betting the run line gives you the better number here — Smith is live to keep this one within a run even if Chicago’s offense stays cold.