NFL Best Bets for Sunday, January 7

It seems like when we lose, we really lose this season. An 0-3 result in Week 17 leaves us with an 18-19-2 mark for the 2023-24 NFL campaign. The overmatched Dolphins never had a chance against the Ravens in what was a let-down spot for both teams. Only Miami disappointed their backers in a 56-19 stomping.

Our under play on the Raiders and Colts shows the benefit of playing lines early, as we lost to the closing number but would have won had we bet after the open. Finally, the Saints and Bucs could only manage 36 points between them and failed to eclipse the 42 points we needed for the over to cash.

Despite this being the final week of the regular season, we aren’t getting greedy and throwing darts all over the board. With playoffs still ahead and our +1700 future on Lamar Jackson to win the MVP, we’re sticking to the system that led us to a 56.6% win rate in 2022-23. Our best bets for Week 18’s action are outlined below.

Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: UNDER 42.5

• Atlanta ranks sixth in the NFL in opponent yards per play this season. They are in the top ten in both net yards per pass attempt and yards per carry allowed and sit tenth in scoring defense.
• The Falcons gashed the Saints for 228 rushing yards on 41 attempts during their meeting in late November. New Orleans ran for 148 yards, and both teams averaged north of 5.0 yards per carry.
• In that earlier meeting, the teams combined for 39 points despite four turnovers, including a pick-six, and nearly 850 yards of total offense.
• The Atlanta quarterback situation continues to undermine their offensive output. Neither Desmond Ridder nor Taylor Heinicke has strung together quality starts the entire season, and Heinicke left Sunday’s contest with Chicago due to a nagging ankle injury.

Best Bet: Green Bay Packers -3 (-105) (Caesars)

• Green Bay scored 30+ points in back-to-back weeks for the first time this season in the two games leading up to Week 18. Wins in those matchups have put them a victory away from clinching a playoff berth.
• The only other time the Packers scored 30 points or more this season prior to Week 16 was Week 1 when they defeated the Bears on the road by 18 points.
• Chicago enters this week as winners of four of five, with their best victory coming against Detroit at home and a close loss to Cleveland sandwiched in between.
• Green Bay’s posted two of their three best rushing performances of the year in the last two weeks. They’ve also clamped down on opposing teams, allowing 3.9 yards per carry in the previous three weeks.

Best Bet: Arizona Cardinals +3 (-115) (BetMGM)

• The possibility of a mental let-down by Arizona following an unexpected road win in Philadelphia will be canceled out by the finality of the last week of their season, as well as a chance to play spoiler to their division rivals’ playoff hopes.
• James Conner exploded for his best game of the season a week ago, rumbling for 128 yards on 26 carries and his fourth touchdown in as many weeks during the Cards’ upset over the Eagles.
• Seattle got trampled by Pittsburgh to the tune of 202 rushing yards from 46 attempts. The Seahawks ran 22 fewer plays and had the ball for 15 fewer minutes of game time than the Steelers.
• Pete Carroll’s squad converted just three of nine third-down attempts last week. For the season, Seattle ranks 25th in moving the sticks on third down and allows the second-worst rate of those conversions to opponents defensively. Seattle has allowed the second-most rushing first downs among all NFL teams.