NBA Player Prop Picks for Monday Night

NBA Player Prop Picks March 25

We take a break from March Madness for a few days following the round of 32 and shift our focus back over to the pros for another Monday edition of Best Prop Bets. There are a few extra games on the board today, with 11 matchups throughout the association.

Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors

The Raptors host the Nets in Toronto today and both teams might be happy to see each other as both squads are in free fall. The Raptors have lost ten straight games while the Nets have dropped six straight. Neither of these teams have any playoff hopes at this point in the season so we’ve entered the territory of “well, someone has to win”.

I have my eye on Nets PG Dennis Schroder in a line that looks to be too high given his recent performances. Schroder has struggled in his last three shooting a combined 10/35 or 28.5% from the field. He’s not getting to the free throw line much at all and not shooting particularly well from deep. He has popped in recent games mostly on the assist totals but also grabbing quite a few rebounds as well.

Schroder is getting a full 34+ minute workload on a nightly basis, so it’s not surprising to see him average 6.7 assists this month, given his play style and USG%. That being said, his P+R+A line is sitting at 25.5 for tonight’s game, which I’m happy to take under at -125 at DK/MGM. Brooklyn F Cam Johnson has already been ruled out for tonight’s game with a toe sprain.

I think we’re getting an inflated number for Schroder given that the Nets will be missing one of their secondary scoring options and there will be some USG% that should be re-assigned.

Although this is the case tonight, Schroder has basically been the only active point guard for the Nets with Dennis Smith Jr. out for an extended period of time. I think Cam Johnson’s minutes get backfilled by the likes of Lonnie Walker or Trenton Watford, rather than see Schroder’s numbers shoot up. The PRA line of 25.5 is too high given Schroder’s averages around 22.5, plus the fact that he’s playing poorly on top of that make this a play on tonight’s slate.

Bet: Dennis Schroder UNDER 25.5 PRA (-125)

Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls

Sticking with our theme of teams going nowhere this season, we’ll have the 13 win Wizards taking on the Bulls. The Wizards are actually riding a 2 game win streak but find themselves as 12.5 point underdogs in Chicago on Monday Night. I think we have enough injury news to go on for this matchup as Jordan Poole is likely to play despite being listed as Questionable with an ankle sprain. Importantly, Kyle Kuzma has already been ruled out with shoulder soreness.

I’m looking at Deni Avdija in this one, who’s quietly put up some monster stat lines in his recent games. The Wizards have been getting Avdija much more involved since the All-Star break and I think the trend continues given the injury situation and relative lack of talent on the Wizards team.
We know that the Wizards are the worst rebounding team in the league often playing without a traditional center, going up against a Bulls team who profiles at just above average on the season. Despite being a poor team defensively and in terms of DRB%, someone still has to crash the boards and in recent games it’s been Avdija and Rishaun Holmes.

Avdija’s PRA number is sitting at 29.5 at DK, a point lower than his previous game close at 30.5, despite Kuzma in the lineup. I think the market will look to correct this throughout the day and will take the number now. Although I do expect this to be the Jordan Poole show without Kuzma, there are still a number of vacated shots and rebounds in this Wizards offense that Avdija can take advantage of.

He’s also picked up five assists in his last three games, which could stack up with his 4.5 assist line by itself. My play will be on the PRA number given that Avdija can get there through a multiple of game scripts.

Bet: Deni Avdija OVER 29.5 PRA (-125)

Max Gilson

Sports Betting Contributor

Max is a seasoned sports analyst from New York who is known for his work on The Noise podcast. He brings a unique perspective on sports betting to the table, one that focuses on a quantitative approach and finding the best price. He can be found on X @max_thenoise