MLB Pitcher Strikeout Props for May 7, 2026: Three Arms Worth Targeting Today

Thursday’s MLB slate features 10 games and a collection of starting pitchers that make the strikeout prop market worth exploring. If you are new to this type of bet, the concept is simple: you are wagering on whether a pitcher will record more or fewer strikeouts than a number set by the sportsbook. Today, three arms stand out with the track records and matchups to support confident over plays.

The formula for winning strikeout props is finding pitchers whose real strikeout ability is ahead of what the line gives them credit for. Each of the three pitchers below has the numbers, the environment, and the opposition to back up the over today. All odds are from FanDuel unless noted otherwise.

Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 Strikeouts: The Cubs Ace Gets a Juicy Home Spot

Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs is one of the most reliable strikeout producers in the National League. Through seven starts in 2026, Imanaga has a 2.40 ERA and 43 strikeouts, averaging 6.1 punchouts per outing. His command is exceptional — he has walked only 10 batters across 41.1 innings — which means he stays in games long enough to accumulate strikeouts at a high rate.

Imanaga takes the mound Thursday at Wrigley Field against the Cincinnati Reds in a 2:20 PM Eastern start. Home games have been noticeably better for him this year. He carries a 1.80 ERA in four starts at Wrigley and has struck out 22 batters in 25 home innings. His most recent home start — a seven-inning shutout of the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 2 — resulted in five strikeouts and just one walk. Prior to that, he struck out 11 in six innings against Philadelphia on April 15.

The over 5.5 at -162 reflects the market acknowledging his quality, but the number is still beatable. He has averaged 6.1 strikeouts per game and exceeded 5.5 in most of his starts this season. Paired with a favorable home environment and an opponent in the Reds who grade as a swing-heavy lineup, this is among the highest-confidence plays on the Thursday board. Check your book for the best available price, but FanDuel has the over 5.5 at -162.

Michael King Over 5.5 Strikeouts: Petco Park + a Struggling Cardinals Offense

Michael King has been one of the more consistent strikeout arms in the National League West in 2026. The San Diego Padres starter has recorded 39 strikeouts through seven appearances with a 2.95 ERA. That works out to 5.6 strikeouts per game, just above the 5.5 bar set for Thursday’s late game at Petco Park at 10:10 PM Eastern.

Petco Park deserves special mention here. It is one of the most favorable pitcher environments in baseball, suppressing offense and rewarding pitchers who generate weak contact and swings and misses. King fits that profile well. He mixes a lively fastball with secondary offerings that generate chases out of the zone, and pitching in front of a defense in a stadium designed for pitchers means he is rarely working from behind in counts.

The Cardinals are sending Matthew Liberatore to the mound for the opposite side — Liberatore has a 4.50 ERA with 23 strikeouts in seven starts. The matchup dynamic puts both starters in a similar zone, but what matters for this prop is King’s ability to independently rack up strikeouts. The -112 price on the over 5.5 is close to a coin flip in implied probability, which undervalues a pitcher averaging above that mark. This is a strong play at a fair price.

Max Meyer Over 5.5 Strikeouts: The Most Underrated Arm on the Board

Max Meyer of the Miami Marlins is averaging 5.7 strikeouts per game through seven starts this season with a 2.68 ERA. The right-hander has been consistently productive at missing bats, which makes the over 5.5 on Thursday at -118 (FanDuel) a genuinely appealing number given his recent production.

Meyer starts against the Baltimore Orioles at loanDepot park in Miami at 6:40 PM Eastern. The Orioles are sending Cade Povich to the mound for the opposing side. Povich has a 4.41 ERA and 11 strikeouts in three appearances, so both teams are in similar territory in terms of starter quality. For Meyer’s strikeout prop specifically, what matters is whether he has the swing-and-miss stuff to clear 5.5 — and at 5.7 per game this season, the answer is yes.

At -118, the market is pricing Meyer as a near-even bet to clear 5.5 strikeouts. Given that his season average sits above that line, the -118 represents slightly discounted juice on what should be a higher-confidence over. The Orioles lineup has not been especially disciplined at the plate in 2026, which helps Meyer’s chances of running up the strikeout total in a quality start.

Lock These In: Thursday’s Strikeout Plays

All three of these pitchers have the underlying numbers to support over bets on Thursday. Imanaga is the highest-confidence play given his home splits and volume, King offers the best balance of value and probability at -112, and Meyer rounds out the card as a near-even bet with an average sitting above the line. Here are the three plays:

• Shota Imanaga OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-162, FanDuel)
• Michael King OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-112, FanDuel)
• Max Meyer OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-118, FanDuel)

Play them individually or combine them into a small-unit parlay. Either way, the math and the matchups are working in your favor today.