Los Angeles Kings vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet

Two teams with very real playoff aspirations are coming together as the Tampa Bay Lightning host the Los Angeles Kings at Amalie Arena tonight. Both teams are well into the playoff race but come into this game after a tough stretch of losses.

The puck drops tonight at 6:00 PM ET, and this game will undoubtedly feature some intriguing storylines, including goaltender battles and some of the best offensive talent in the league.

With Tampa Bay listed as slight -145 favorites and Los Angeles sitting at +125 underdogs, we’ll break down the odds, how the teams have looked lately, and a few key factors before giving our best pick for the matchup.

Kings and Lightning Bring Contrasting Form

The Lightning are coming into this game trying to recover from a bit of inconsistency.

Tampa Bay has gone 4-5-1 in its last 10 games and they’re averaging fewer goals at just 2.8 compared to their season-long average of 3.4 goals per game.

While Nikita Kucherov with 73 points continues to drive their offense, their depth has been hit-and-miss. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has been solid between the pipes with his .916 save percentage and a 2.34 goals-against average, but the Lightning need more from their supporting cast to stay competitive in tough matchups like they’ll face tonight.

Los Angeles has also been shaky despite taking the first game of the series nearly a month ago. They’re going 3-6-1 in their last 10 games. The Kings’ offense, led by Adrian Kempe who has 44 points and 24 goals, and Anze Kopitar, is still potent, but defensive lapses and mistakes have been costly to the otherwise decent team. Goaltender Darcy Kuemper, sporting a strong .921 save percentage, has often been hung out to dry due to lapses in defensive structure.

Both of these teams are potential playoff contenders, but as of late they’re struggling for consistency. That tells us that this game will likely hinge on special teams and goaltending.

Key Factors and Betting Insights

The Kings’ injury report is concerning. With a few key players like Drew Doughty and Joel Edmundson out, they’ll need others on the struggling blue line to step up. Defensive depth is already a problem, and missing Doughty’s leadership further tilts the scales toward Tampa Bay.

Meanwhile, the Lightning’s lineup appears slightly healthier, although Brayden Point is listed as day-to-day and could miss the game. This would leave them without one of their top scorers.

While injuries may be a concern depending on who laces up their skates, special teams will unquestionably play a big role in tonight’s showdown.

Statistically, Tampa Bay’s power play which is at 27.3% is superior to Los Angeles’ at 15.7%, which we think could be a difference-maker depending on how disciplined these teams are.

On top of that, the Lightning does a decent job at home with their record of 15-8-1. This is far better than the Kings’ road performance where they currently sit at 11-13-5.

With both teams underperforming over the past few weeks, these small margins matter more than ever.

Kings vs. Lightning Prediction and Best Bet

The Lightning’s home advantage and dominant special teams is what we feel give them the edge in this matchup. 

To add to that, Andrei Vasilevskiy’s consistency in net should help Tampa Bay shut down — at least slow down — Los Angeles’s top-heavy offense, especially given the Kings’ injuries on defense.

The Lightning’s offense, led by one of the best in the NHL, Nikita Kucherov, should have quite a few opportunities to capitalize on a depleted Kings’ blue line. We expect Tampa Bay to control possession and get their goals on the power play.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Lightning 3, Kings 2
• Best Bet: Lightning Moneyline (-145)

This will be a tight game. Between the injuries and how the teams have played lately, neither is looking like a complete team capable of dominating for a full 60 minutes. Tampa Bay’s inconsistencies are definitely a concern, but they’ve shown they can bounce back, especially on their home ice. Given the Kings’ injury woes and defensive struggles, the Lightning have the tools to get the win in a close game.

As for the totals bet, the over/under is set at 5.5 which is pretty low for a game like this. In a game like this, we’d abstain from betting on the total, but we would definitely lean towards the under.