Washington Capitals vs. Ottawa Senators Prediction, Odds, and the Best Bet

The Washington Capitals and their 34-11-5 record travel to the Canadian Tire Centre to face the Ottawa Senators sitting at 26-20-4 tonight at 7:00 PM ET.

Washington enters this matchup as slight favorites at -115 on the moneyline, while Ottawa holds -105 odds. While the odds are about as even as you can get, this game is still crucial for both teams, with the Capitals holding firm atop the Metropolitan Division and the Senators fighting for positioning in the Atlantic.

Can Ottawa’s recent hot streak overcome Washington’s depth? There is a lot to dig into for this game but there’s only going to be one team that walks away with 2 points.

Odds and Matchup Analysis

Washington has been in solid form as of late, going 8-1-1 in their last 10 games. This includes some of the top-rated teams like Edmonton. However, their scoring has dipped a bit. They’re averaging 3 fewer goals per game than their season average during this stretch.

While the Caps look great, Ottawa has also been strong, sporting a 7-2-1 record over their last 10 contests. We think they’ll definitely give them a run for their money.

The Senators’ home-ice advantage has been meaningful. With recent wins against tough opponents like Toronto, they’re showing that they can dominate on their home ice.

However, Washington’s defense, led by goalie Logan Thompson, has been nothing less than stellar. Thompson’s .927 save percentage and 2.05 GAA make him one of the NHL’s best netminders. He’s holding the top spot in the NHL for save percentage.

Ottawa’s Linus Ullmark has been fairly solid too, though inconsistent, posting a .915 save percentage with a few rough games in recent outings. He’s not too far behind Thompson when it comes to goalies.

Offensively, Tim Stutzle leads the Sens, notching 48 points, while captain Brady Tkachuk continues to be a key goal scorer. 

For the Capitals, Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin are the cornerstones of the offense, combining for 69 points this season.

Prediction and Best Bet

We think this game feels like it could hinge on two factors — goaltending and special teams.

Washington’s 84.7% penalty kill is 2nd in the NHL. They’ll challenge Ottawa’s power play, which has cooled slightly despite being ranked 7th overall in the league. If the Senators can’t convert on the man advantage, we believe they will struggle to keep pace with Washington’s efficient style of play for a full 60 minutes.

On the other side of the ice, Ottawa’s recent defensive improvements will be tested. Sure, they allowed just 5 goals in their last 3 games, but Washington’s offense is a different challenge. They’re loaded with stars, but their leader, Alex Ovechkin, may not be at full strength (he’s listed on the injury report but there’s a chance he could return tonight). Despite this, Washington still has enough weapons and depth to break through.

Both teams are trending under the total in recent games, with the Capitals failing to hit the over in their last 10. The posted total of 5.5 goals means the bookmakers think they won’t be able to hit it again. Despite the low-scoring possibility, Washington’s ability to capitalize on mistakes gives them the edge.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Capitals 2, Senators 1
• Best Bet: Capitals moneyline (-115)

Washington’s defense and depth make them a safer play, even in a tight contest like this one. If Ovechkin is cleared, which we think he will be, this becomes an even stronger pick. With that, we expect a low-scoring 2-1 win for the Capitals, with Logan Thompson anchoring the win in net. He’s so hot, there’s even a chance he could notch his 3rd shutout of the season and at +700 odds, it could be a decent payday.