Late-Round QB Strategy: Why Waiting on Quarterback Wins Fantasy Football in 2026

Waiting on quarterback still wins fantasy football leagues, and the 2026 QB class is deep enough that the strategy has never made more sense.

Quick take:

• Top name: Kyler Murray
• Why: Rushing floor plus a legitimate path to the Vikings’ Week 1 job makes him a QB1 who’s falling to QB17-20 range on ADP boards
• The number to watch: 26 of the last 28 QBs with 100-plus rush attempts in a season have finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback

The gap at quarterback simply isn’t what it is at running back or receiver. Josh Allen’s QB1 fantasy season landed around 375 points last year, while a QB10 finish like Justin Herbert’s still cleared 300. Compare that to running back, where the difference between an RB1 and an RB10 season is often triple digits. That math is exactly why smart fantasy managers keep pushing their first several picks toward running back and receiver scarcity, trusting that a startable quarterback will still be sitting there in round nine or ten.

This year’s landscape makes the wait even more comfortable. Several passers with legitimate top-12 upside are being drafted as backups off the waiver wire rather than as starters, and camp battles across the league are adding even more names to the sleeper pool before Week 1 is set. Anyone tracking Super Bowl odds already knows how unsettled several of these quarterback rooms remain heading into the season.

Kyler Murray Is the Model Late-Round Target

Murray is in a genuine head-to-head competition with J.J. McCarthy for the Vikings’ starting job, and reports out of Minnesota camp have him gaining momentum under new play-caller Kevin O’Connell. Murray’s rushing profile alone makes him worth the wait — he logged 83 carries for 491 yards and four scores last season even in a down year statistically, and O’Connell’s scheme has a track record of feeding designed quarterback runs. With an ADP hovering in the QB17-20 range across major platforms, Murray offers true QB1 upside at a price that lets a manager fill out running back and receiver depth first.

Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff Offer a Safer Floor

Not every late-round target needs to run. Lawrence enters a season with a stacked receiving corps in Jacksonville and flashed real rushing upside down the stretch last year, averaging around 25 rushing yards and 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game in a four-game sample. He’s coming off the board outside the top-10 rounds on most boards despite finishing with real weekly QB1 equity late in the year. Goff, meanwhile, is close to the safest bet in this range — he posted 4,499 passing yards and 33 touchdowns last season for Detroit, numbers that would’ve ranked him inside the top-11 fantasy quarterbacks, yet he’s still being drafted as a backup in the QB16 range on most sites because he offers almost nothing on the ground.

Watch the Camp Battles Before You Draft

Four teams opened camp without a settled starter, and that uncertainty is exactly where late-round value hides. Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders are splitting first-team reps in Cleveland under new head coach Todd Monken, with Watson’s guaranteed money making him the likely favorite. In Atlanta, Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa are competing for the same job, and in Arizona, Jacoby Brissett’s fully guaranteed one-year deal has all but locked out rookie Carson Beck for now. None of these situations demand an early pick, but they’re worth tracking into the final week of preseason before locking in a QB2 handcuff.

Twenty-six of the last 28 quarterbacks who rushed for 100-plus attempts in a season finished as a top-12 fantasy option — rushing floor is the single best predictor of late-round QB success.

That single stat is the backbone of the entire late-round approach. Passing volume is nice, but it’s replaceable across a 32-team league. Rushing production isn’t, and it’s the trait that turns a replacement-level arm into a weekly starter.

Baker Mayfield is worth a mention too. He topped 3,900 passing yards with 59 carries for nearly 400 yards and two rushing scores last season in Tampa Bay, and he’s routinely being drafted a full two rounds after where his 2025 per-game scoring finished. Checking the latest NFL odds board is a quick way to gauge which of these quarterback rooms oddsmakers still trust the most.

The Bottom Line

Draft running backs and receivers early, then trust the depth at quarterback to bail you out in the double-digit rounds. This year’s version of that plan is built around a handful of clear, data-backed targets.

1. Kyler Murray — the best blend of rushing equity and starting-job upside in the QB17-20 range
2. Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff — safer floors with real top-12 statistical resumes at a discount price

Pair one of the rushers with one of the pure passers on your bench, and you’ve built a quarterback room for a fraction of the draft capital your league mates spent on Josh Allen. It’s the same value-hunting instinct that makes shopping around sportsbook markets worthwhile before the season starts — the best number is rarely the first one you see.