Knicks vs Pacers Prediction: Why the Under Is the Play

The Knicks bring one of the NBA’s stingiest defenses to Indianapolis, and the Pacers have lost their best way of speeding a game up.

Quick take:

• Pick: Under 219.5 total points
• Why: New York grinds possessions and allows just 103.5 points a night, while Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton.
• The number to watch: 103.5 points allowed per game by the Knicks.

Both teams walk into Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday night (7:00 PM ET, Amazon Prime Video and MSG) still hunting their first NBA Cup group win. New York is 6-5 and coming off a 115-107 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday, while Indiana sits at 4-8 and is 1-4 at home. The Knicks dropped their Cup opener to Philadelphia on Oct. 30, and the Pacers are also 0-1 in group play, so one of them will get off the mark in Indianapolis.

The Knicks are the better team on paper and the market agrees. The more interesting question is how this game gets played, and that is where the total beats the side.

Where the Market Has Settled on Knicks vs Pacers

The Knicks are road favorites of roughly 6.5 to 7.5 points depending on the book, with moneylines mostly in the -265 to -290 range and Indiana around +210 to +235. The total is sitting at 219.5 at most shops, and it opened far higher at some books. Indiana has been a better bet than its record, going 7-5 against the spread, while New York is just 4-7. If you want to shop numbers, a DraftKings promo code is one way to get started at a book that carries this game.

Recent Form

New York had won four straight before Wednesday’s loss to the Cavaliers, and Indiana is still searching for traction without its star guard. Here is how each team’s recent results and the head-to-head history look.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Why the Under Is the Sharper Angle

Start with the Knicks’ identity. They rank 22nd in scoring at 110.3 points per game, but they allow only 103.5, one of the stingiest marks in the league. Indiana, at 111.6 points scored and 114.0 allowed, is a middle-of-the-pack team that has leaned on Haliburton’s playmaking to stay relevant. Haliburton played four games before a left hamstring strain sidelined him, and the latest update on his recovery points past this game. That engine is gone.

New York allows 103.5 points a game, about 10 fewer than the 114.0 Indiana gives up.

The Pacers’ creation burden now falls on Andrew Nembhard, who leads the team at 7.8 assists per game, and Pascal Siakam, who is averaging 22.7 points and 6.9 rebounds on 51.1 percent shooting. Aaron Nesmith is questionable with a sore right knee and T.J. McConnell is dealing with a hamstring strain, so the rotation is thin. Johnny Furphy and Ben Sheppard are also sidelined, which strips the bench of more perimeter depth.

The Knicks, meanwhile, list nobody on their injury report. Jalen Brunson is scoring 26.0 per game on 43.0 percent shooting, and Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 20.9 points and a league-best 13.5 rebounds after opening the season with 11 straight double-doubles, a run that tied Willis Reed’s franchise record. That matters against an Indiana team grabbing only 41.1 rebounds a night, among the fewest in the NBA, because every defensive board Towns secures ends a possession and keeps the Pacers from easy second chances. New York pulls down 48.1 rebounds a game as a team.

The Knicks’ offense is not a fireworks show either. Mikal Bridges is averaging only 5.9 points through 11 games, a drop of almost nine points from last season, and OG Anunoby adds 16.5. Landry Shamet is the fourth-leading scorer at 9.6. When the scoring runs through a few players, New York leans on half-court sets, and that burns clock.

Short version: the Pacers cannot run, and the Knicks do not want to.

The recent head-to-head history supports a lower number than people might expect. In the last four meetings the closing totals were 222.5, 227.5, 227.5 and 224.5, and the Knicks won three of them, including a 101-92 result on March 13 that finished 34 points under its 227.5 total. This time, the Pacers’ rotation is far more limited, and the total is posted three to eight points lower than those four numbers.

There is a case against the Under, and it is worth being honest about it. Indiana scores 111.6 a night and allows 114.0, and the Knicks have shown they can be stretched when Brunson is cooking. If Nesmith sits and the Knicks lean on pace to punish a thin lineup, New York could get to 115 on its own. A runaway Knicks win with a few garbage-time possessions can push a total over too. But the Knicks’ scoring rank, the Pacers’ lack of a creator and the pace the Knicks play all lean one direction.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Knicks should be able to win a grind. Brunson and Towns handle the scoring and the glass, and Indiana does not have the playmaking to push the tempo. Expect a methodical game that stays under the number, with New York pulling away late. For the full board, check the live NBA odds before tip.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Knicks 111, Pacers 102
2. Best Bet: Under 219.5

New York’s defense, plus Indiana’s lack of a primary creator, makes the Under the cleanest play on a board where the spread is already priced in.