Florida vs Kentucky Prediction: Wildcats Win Turnover Fight

Florida’s offense has scored two touchdowns in two games, and now it walks into the building of the SEC’s best turnover-takers.

Quick take:

• Pick: Kentucky -3.5
• Why: The Wildcats take the ball away at an elite rate, and Florida has been giving it away at an alarming one.
• The number to watch: Kentucky leads the SEC at plus-10 in turnover margin, while Florida is minus-5 over its last two games.

Saturday night at Kroger Field in Lexington (6:15 p.m. ET, ESPN) pits two teams trying to shake off ugly losses. Florida is 5-4 overall and 3-4 in the SEC after a 23-7 loss to Oklahoma, and it needs one more win to become bowl eligible. No. 13 Kentucky is 7-2 and 5-2 in league play after getting run out of Knoxville, 34-6, by Tennessee.

Both programs are led by first-year coaches. Will Stein has the Wildcats in the College Football Playoff conversation after a 35-34 overtime win over LSU and another 35-34 overtime win over South Carolina, both decided on two-point conversions. Jon Sumrall started 4-0 at Florida and went to Austin and beat No. 8 Texas, but the Gators have lost four of their last five. Sumrall also played at Kentucky from 2001 to 2004 and later coached there, so this one comes with some history.

Kentucky Is a Small Favorite, and the Market Agrees

Kentucky is a 3.5-point home favorite at most books, with the moneyline sitting around Kentucky -165 to -175 and Florida +137 to +145. The total is 52.5. The market is telling you this is closer to a field goal-plus game than a blowout, which makes sense for a Florida team that has been competitive against good opponents and a Kentucky team that just lost by 28. You can compare numbers across books on the live NCAAF odds page.

Recent Form

The two trend lines point in different directions, but not as far apart as the records suggest. Here is how each team has looked lately, along with the series history.

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Turnovers and Third Downs Decide This One

Florida is going back to quarterback Aaron Philo after Tramell Jones Jr. threw two interceptions against Oklahoma. Philo has 1,367 passing yards and nine touchdowns on 70.5 percent accuracy, but he has also thrown three picks over his last two starts. That is a problem against a Kentucky defense with 12 interceptions, second in the SEC behind only Alabama. Safeties Jordan Castell, a former Florida player, and Ty Bryant have four apiece. The Gators will also be without receiver Vernell Brown III for a sixth straight game with a knee strain, which thins out the group Philo has to throw to.

Florida has forced one turnover and given away six over its last two games.

The Gators do have a real weapon on the ground. Jadan Baugh has 836 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns at 5.2 yards per carry, and he is the one player who can keep Florida on schedule. If Baugh gets going early, Florida can keep this close and keep Kentucky’s ball hawks off the field.

On the other side, Kenny Minchey has been efficient, with 1,979 yards, 14 touchdowns, two interceptions and a 69.9 percent completion rate. Freshman receiver Kenny Darby is one of the targets he leans on, with C.J. Baxter carrying the run game. Florida allows about 233 passing yards a game and ranks 15th in the SEC at 45.2 percent on third-down defense, so Minchey should find room. Kentucky is no wall either. Its pass defense gives up 238.2 yards a game and its 47.7 percent third-down rate allowed is the worst in the league.

Third downs are the hidden battleground. Florida and Kentucky rank among the two worst third-down defenses in the SEC, and Oklahoma converted 10 of 18 against the Gators last week during a 20-play, 89-yard touchdown drive. Whichever offense stays on schedule and avoids the mistake that ends a drive will control the clock and the scoreboard.

Cold matters too. Game-time temperatures should land between 30 and 40 degrees, Florida’s coldest game of the year. Kentucky has won four of the last five in the series, including a 38-7 win last season.

Prediction and Best Bet

Kentucky wins this one, and the reason is simple: the Wildcats take the ball away and the Gators give it away. Florida’s quarterback situation has been unsettled, its offense has been stuck at 15 combined points over two games, and now it faces one of the most opportunistic defenses in the conference in a cold, late kickoff. Kentucky’s loss to Tennessee looks more like one bad night than a trend, and the home crowd should help it bounce back. If you back the Wildcats, check the latest DraftKings promo code offer first, and Kentucky bettors can see what is available through Kentucky sportsbooks.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Kentucky 30, Florida 23
2. Best Bet: Kentucky -3.5

Take the Wildcats at home and lay the field goal and a half. Turnover margin is the most reliable edge in this matchup, and Kentucky owns it.