How to Bet UFC 329: A Beginner’s Guide to McGregor vs Holloway 2 Odds and Best Bets

Conor McGregor is stepping back into the octagon for the first time in more than five years, and the UFC picked about as big a stage as possible for it. UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 goes down Saturday, July 11, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with the main card airing on Paramount+ at 9pm ET (prelims start at 7pm ET, early prelims at 5pm ET). The headliner is a welterweight rematch of a fight from 13 years ago: McGregor against Max Holloway, this time with McGregor as the underdog for the first time in his UFC career.

If you have never bet on a fight card before, MMA betting looks intimidating at first glance because of all the prop markets sportsbooks stack around a single fight. The good news is that it breaks down into a few simple concepts once you know what you are looking at. This guide walks through the basics using the McGregor-Holloway main event as the example, then applies the same ideas to a couple of the other featured bouts on the card.

The Basics: How MMA Betting Actually Works

Every UFC card offers three main types of wagers, and understanding the difference is the whole game for a new bettor.

Moneyline (who wins): This is the simplest bet in all of sports betting. You are just picking who wins the fight, no matter how it happens. A negative number means the fighter is favored and you have to risk more to win less (a -220 favorite means you bet $220 to win $100). A positive number is the underdog price, showing how much profit a $100 bet would return if that fighter pulls off the win.

Method of victory (how they win): Instead of just picking the winner, you are also predicting the method: knockout/TKO, submission, or decision. These props usually pay out much higher than the straight moneyline because you are adding a layer of specificity. A fighter known for heavy hands might have appealing KO/TKO odds even if their overall moneyline price is unattractive.

Round props (when it happens): These bets deal with the total number of rounds the fight lasts, usually set as an over/under line like 2.5 rounds. Betting the under means you expect a finish before that point; betting the over means you expect the fight to go longer, potentially the full distance. Sportsbooks also offer round-specific props, such as a fighter winning specifically in round 1 or round 2, which pay out even bigger since you are nailing down both the winner and the exact timing.

Applying It to McGregor vs. Holloway

McGregor (22-6) last competed on July 10, 2021, when he suffered a broken leg in a TKO loss to Dustin Poirier at UFC 264. He was briefly booked to fight Michael Chandler at UFC 303 in 2024 but withdrew with a toe injury, meaning Saturday marks his first appearance in the cage in more than five years. Holloway (27-9) has stayed busy in that stretch, most notably knocking out Justin Gaethje in the final second of round five to win the symbolic BMF title at UFC 300, then defending it against Dustin Poirier in his trilogy fight and retirement bout at UFC 318 last July. Holloway’s momentum cooled a bit at UFC 326 in March, where he lost the BMF belt to Charles Oliveira by lopsided decision. The two originally met back in August 2013, when McGregor won a three-round decision despite tearing his ACL mid-fight.

On the moneyline, Holloway opened as a massive favorite in the -400 to -550 range when the fight was first booked, but that line has tightened steadily as fight week approached. As of this week, Holloway sits around -220 to -240 at most books, with McGregor priced as the underdog around +180 to +190. That kind of line movement toward the underdog usually signals public and sharp money both leaning the same direction, which is worth noting if you are shopping for the best number before locking in a moneyline bet.

The method-of-victory and round markets tell an interesting story here too. McGregor’s power has always been his calling card, and sportsbooks have him priced around +500 to +600 to win by knockout in round 1 specifically, and roughly +850 to +900 to close it out in round 2. A McGregor unanimous decision win, by contrast, sits closer to +1600, reflecting how rarely he wins fights on the scorecards. For the fight’s total-rounds prop, most books have set the line at 2.5 rounds, with the under drawing slightly more interest given how much firepower and finishing ability both men bring, along with the rust and layoff factors on McGregor’s side.

A Couple More Fights Worth Knowing the Bets On

The co-main event pits Benoit Saint Denis, who rides a four-fight winning streak, against Paddy Pimblett, who is looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Justin Gaethje earlier this year. Saint Denis is the moneyline favorite in the range of -140 to -170, with Pimblett getting plus-money in the +115 to +150 range depending on the book, and that gap widening or narrowing throughout the week is exactly the kind of line movement worth tracking before you bet.

Lower on the main card, Cory Sandhagen takes on Mario Bautista at bantamweight. Sandhagen, coming off an unsuccessful title challenge, is favored in most markets around -135 to -140, with Bautista, who has won nine of his last ten octagon appearances, priced as a live underdog near +110 to +118. That kind of price on a fighter with Bautista’s recent form is the type of spot beginner bettors should learn to recognize as a value opportunity rather than an automatic pass just because he is not the favorite.

Prediction and Best Bet

Betting the moneyline is usually the smartest starting point for newer bettors, and this main event is no exception. Holloway holds a massive experience and volume edge over the last five years, ranks first in UFC history in total fight time and significant strikes landed, and is moving up in weight against a 37-year-old opponent who has fought once since 2020. McGregor’s power is real and his counter-striking can trouble anyone early, but asking him to shake off that much ring rust against a durable, high-output striker like Holloway over five rounds is a tall order.

• Prediction: Max Holloway defeats Conor McGregor by decision
• Best Bet: Max Holloway on the moneyline

For bettors who want more upside than the moneyline offers, a smaller side bet on the fight going the distance pairs well with the Holloway pick, since his gas tank and championship rounds experience give him every reason to play it patient rather than chase a highlight-reel finish. Whichever way you lean, shop the line across a couple of sportsbook reviews before placing anything, since even a 20-cent difference in the moneyline adds up over a full card. New users can also compare sign-up offers like the DraftKings promo code or the FanDuel promo code to get bonus funds working before first walkout music hits, and it never hurts to run your parlay math through a betting calculator first. For live line tracking all fight week, keep an eye on live UFC odds as the card gets closer, since main event numbers like this one tend to keep moving right up until walkout time.