Grizzlies vs. Warriors Prediction, Odds & Best Bets — NBA Summer League Championship

The Memphis Grizzlies already beat the Golden State Warriors by 21 points this July — now they have to do it again with the Summer League title on the line.

Quick take:

• Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -3.5
• Why: Javon Small has been the best guard in Las Vegas, and Memphis has already beaten this exact Golden State roster once
• The number to watch: Memphis shot 53% from three (17-for-32) in the first meeting; Golden State shot 31%

Sunday night at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors close out the 2026 NBA Summer League with a rematch of their July 14 group-play meeting — a game Memphis won going away, 106-85. Tip-off for the championship is 9 p.m. ET, live on ESPN. Both rosters are Summer League squads built around recent draft picks and two-way prospects, not the full regular-season teams fans will see in October — but plenty of players on both sides are auditioning for real NBA minutes.

Memphis arrives having won three straight since that mid-tournament stumble, capped by a 101-90 semifinal win over Houston. Golden State needed a tighter path, grinding out a 92-88 semifinal win over the Los Angeles Lakers on the back of Yaxel Lendeborg’s defensive activity. Memphis enters at 4-1 for the event; Golden State sits at 3-2.

Why the Number Says Memphis Again

Sportsbooks had Memphis as the preseason favorite to win the whole event at plus-money odds shorter than every other team in the field, and that price has only tightened since. The Grizzlies’ size and shooting combination — No. 3 overall pick Cameron Boozer up front alongside a bench that can get hot from three — has been difficult for Summer League defenses to match up with all week. Check the latest number below before placing anything.

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Memphis has been the more balanced team across the tournament, while Golden State has leaned hard on one player to carry its offensive load — a pattern that shows up clearly below.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Small vs. Lendeborg Is the Whole Game

Javon Small put up a game-high 26 points, seven assists and two blocks on 7-of-12 shooting in the first meeting between these two, and he’s been arguably the most productive guard at the entire event — averaging north of 17 points a night with a real feel for getting into passing lanes. No. 3 overall pick Cameron Boozer has been steady rather than spectacular in the box score, but his 24-point outing in the semifinal win over Houston (10-for-13 shooting) showed exactly why Memphis wanted him: he doesn’t need volume to be efficient, and he cleans the glass hard on both ends.

Golden State’s counter starts and mostly ends with Yaxel Lendeborg, the No. 11 overall pick out of Michigan who has quietly put together one of the more complete stat lines of the tournament — a near-double-double average with flashes of real defensive playmaking, including two blocks and a steal in the first meeting with Memphis. The problem is depth. When Lendeborg has needed a second scoring option, it’s been LJ Cryer or Will Richard doing the heavy lifting, and neither got going in the first meeting; Golden State shot just 10-for-32 from three that night against a Memphis defense that closed out hard and forced tough looks all game.

Memphis outrebounded Golden State 37-29 in the first meeting and led for 68% of the game to Golden State’s 20%.

That rebounding margin matters more in a rematch than most single-game numbers do, because it reflects size and physicality — two things that tend to hold up over a second meeting between the same two rosters, even with a couple of new faces or different rotations plugged in for the finale. Golden State will need Lendeborg to be closer to a 20-and-10 guy than a 15-and-9 guy to have a real shot.

Taylor Hendricks has been a quiet but important piece of the Memphis frontcourt all week, adding 13 points and six rebounds in the first meeting with Golden State while providing exactly the kind of switchable size that bothers a Warriors roster leaning on smaller, guard-heavy lineups. Memphis’ bench depth showed up again in that first matchup too — Brendan Hausen came off the pine for 20 points on six made threes, a reminder that this Grizzlies group doesn’t need its top two picks to have big nights to win comfortably. That kind of two-deep scoring is exactly what tends to separate teams over the course of a full Summer League slate, and it’s a big reason Memphis carries the shorter line into the finale.

Prediction and Best Bet

Memphis has already shown it can beat this roster comfortably once, and nothing about Golden State’s semifinal grind against the Lakers suggests the offense has suddenly found a second scorer to pair with Lendeborg. Give the edge to size, depth, and the guard who’s been the best player in the building this week.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies 98, Golden State Warriors 89
2. Best Bet: Grizzlies -3.5

Memphis has beaten this Golden State team once already, has the deeper roster, and gets the Summer League title in a game that should look a lot like their first meeting.