Categories: NBA

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks NBA Summer League Prediction: Odds, Rookie Preview, and Best Bet for July 9

The Golden State Warriors open their 2026 Las Vegas Summer League slate against the Dallas Mavericks at 7 p.m. ET at Thomas & Mack Center. This is Summer League, not the regular-season Warriors and Mavericks — Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving are watching from home. Instead, both franchises are using this stage to get first extended looks at their newest lottery picks.

Where the Odds Stand

Golden State comes in with plus-1300 odds to win the Summer League title in one market and plus-7500 in another, reflecting some disagreement on how much stock to put in a roster that doesn’t include a top-10 pick. Dallas sits at plus-1500 to plus-6000 depending on the book, a spread that speaks to how unpredictable early Summer League markets can be before any Las Vegas games have tipped off.

Golden State’s headliner is Yaxel Lendeborg, the No. 11 overall pick out of Michigan, whom the Warriors held onto despite reported trade interest. Lendeborg wasted no time making a first impression, scoring 19 points in a California Classic tune-up win over the Los Angeles Lakers, going 6 of 6 from the field on the night. He’s joined by second-round pick Lajae Jones out of Florida State, and a supporting cast of Exhibit 10 hopefuls that includes LJ Cryer, a returning guard who logged real NBA minutes for Golden State a season ago.

Flagg Headlines Dallas’ Debut

Dallas enters the week with all four of its 2026 draft picks in tow: forward Morez Johnson Jr., guard Sergio De Larrea, forward Tobi Lawal, and guard Vsevolod Ishchenko. Guard Ryan Nembhard and forward Tyler Smith return with actual NBA regular-season experience under head coach Dusty May’s evaluation, giving Dallas a nice blend of proven depth and fresh draft capital. The Mavericks’ 13-man roster also includes 7-foot-5 center prospect Jamarion Sharp, whose sheer size alone makes him a factor around the rim in an environment where most players are still growing into their bodies.

Johnson, the highest of Dallas’ four picks in this year’s draft, headlines a group that also features twin big men Guillermo and Jorge Diaz Graham, giving the Mavericks unusual size and length up front for a Summer League roster. That kind of frontcourt bulk could be a real problem for Golden State’s rotation, which leans more toward perimeter shooting and playmaking than physical post presence.

This is a fresh matchup for both sides with no recent head-to-head history in Vegas, but Dallas’ size advantage in the paint paired with a deeper collection of draft picks gives the Mavericks a real edge on paper heading into tip-off.

Watch how Golden State’s coaching staff tries to space the floor around Lendeborg to keep Dallas’ twin big men away from the rim as much as possible. Lendeborg’s efficiency in his California Classic debut came largely off quick decision-making rather than physical post-ups, which suggests the Warriors will look to play in space and in transition rather than grinding it out inside against a bigger Mavericks frontline. Dallas, on the other hand, should look to establish the Diaz Graham twins and Johnson early to set a physical tone and control the tempo of the game from the opening tip.

Sharp’s presence off the bench also gives Dallas a wild card at the rim that Golden State simply doesn’t have an answer for on paper. Few Summer League rosters carry a true 7-foot-5 shot-blocking specialist, and if Sharp can log even 12 to 15 solid minutes protecting the paint, it takes away one of the easier scoring avenues most young guards look to exploit in these early-tournament games.

Two Different Paths to Vegas

This game airs on ESPN as part of the opening night slate, and it highlights two very different offseason strategies. Golden State chose to hold onto Lendeborg rather than trade him for immediate veteran help, betting on his upside as a long-term frontcourt piece who can eventually complement the franchise’s aging core. Dallas, by contrast, leaned into volume with four total draft picks, giving Dusty May a wider net of prospects to evaluate as the front office continues reshaping the roster around Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving.

Bettors following the Summer League slate can track updated live NBA odds throughout the two-week event in Las Vegas, and those looking for the best signup offers before wagering on any of these matchups should compare the Bet365 promo code or the Hard Rock Bet promo code.

Prediction and Best Bet

Dallas’ size up front and depth of draft investment — four picks compared to Golden State’s two — should be the deciding factor here, particularly if Lendeborg has to work hard just to get his own shots against a bigger, more physical Mavericks frontline.

  • Prediction: Dallas Mavericks 90, Golden State Warriors 84
  • Best Bet: Mavericks moneyline

Dallas’ frontcourt size and deeper investment in this year’s draft class make the Mavericks the smarter side in what should be a competitive, physical opener for both franchises.

Andrew Elmquist

Andrew is an up-and-coming sports betting analyst who specializes in Daily Fantasy Sports and player props in all sports. He holds degrees from Winona State University in Spanish and Communications. You can find Andrew on X @AndrewElmquist1

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Andrew Elmquist

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