Edmonton Oilers vs San Jose Sharks Prediction and Best Bet

These 2 teams are headed in opposite directions and will face off tonight as the Edmonton Oilers host the San Jose Sharks at Rogers Place. With the puck dropping at 9:30 p.m. ET and coverage on ESPN+, there’s plenty of time to get your bets in on this showdown, and we don’t think this one will be close. The Oilers are massive -426 moneyline favorites, while the Sharks are a longshot at +325.

We’re breaking down why this mismatch is priced the way it is — and where the best betting value lies.

Odds and Matchup Breakdown

This game is about as lopsided as it gets in an NHL regular season game.

The Oilers are 45-28-5 and still battling for playoff positioning. They’re 3r in the Pacific Division, but their spot isn’t quite a lock just yet.

The Sharks? They’ve been out of contention since November. Sitting at 20-47-11, San Jose’s season has long been about evaluating young talent and managing a draft position. As far as their record goes, they’re the worst team in the NHL.

Oddsmakers clearly don’t believe this game will be competitive and why should they? Edmonton is listed at -1.5 on the puck line, which makes sense given the gap in talent from both sides of the ice. The over/under is set at 6.5, though recent trends tell us that we might not see a shootout as you might expect.

Over the last 10 games, the Oilers have been inconsistent against the puck line. They’ve gone 3-7 ATS, but they’ve still managed to win 5 of those 10 games straight up. They’ve also hit the over in 5 of their last 10, but they’re scoring 1.2 fewer goals per game recently compared to their season average.

That hints at a team tightening things up before the postseason and making some changes to be better set for a deep playoff run.

San Jose, for what it’s worth, has been surprisingly decent against the spread as they’ve gone 6-4 ATS over their last 10. This is understandable as most of the time they have +1.5 goals starting out. But they’ve only won 2 of those games outright, and they’ve been outgunned all year at both ends.

Breaking Down the Matchup

Let’s be real — Edmonton has no excuse not to dominate this matchup.

Leon Draisaitl continues to be a monster with 52 goals and 106 points in 71 games. That’s Richard Rocket Trophy numbers. When you have a player producing like that, especially one not named Connor McDavid, it tells you all you need to know about the depth up front.

In the net, Stuart Skinner has been good enough with a 24-18-4 record and a 2.9 GAA, but we’ll admit that his .893 SV% leaves something to be desired. Calvin Pickard, their G2, might get the nod but he’s not bad either with his 21-9-1 record, 2.65 GAA, and a .901 SV%. But against San Jose? Neither will need to stand on their head.

San Jose’s leading scorer is rookie sensation Macklin Celebrini with just 62 points, and their goaltending is a mess. Alexandar Georgiev has been the worst regular starter in the league with a brutal .872 SV% and a 3.8 GAA. There’s no hiding that on the road, especially in Edmonton.

The Sharks’ blue line doesn’t help him out, either. Lucas Carlsson somehow leads the team in plus-minus at -3, which is a telling stat considering how often this team gets caved in at 5-on-5.

Recent scoring trends don’t favor an over for this game either. The total for this game is 6.5, but both teams’ recent games have averaged slightly fewer goals than that. Sure, the Oilers and Sharks each saw 5 of their last 10 go over, but that’s more about inconsistency than firepower.

Prediction and Our Best Bet

Coming into tonight’s game, the Oilers have everything to play for and the Sharks are just trying to get to the offseason without more embarrassment.

Edmonton also has the home-ice edge and one of the most dangerous power-play units in hockey. If they get even 2 chances with the man advantage, this game could be out of reach before the 2nd period. Unfortunately for the Sharks, they’re one of the least disciplined teams and are in the bottom 10 when it comes to PIM.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Oilers 5, Sharks 2
• Best Bet: Oilers -1.5 at -162

We’re not going to overthink this one. Edmonton is clearly the play — but laying -426 on the moneyline offers almost no value at all. So, we’re going Oilers -1.5 on the puck line at -162. You might even find better odds than that closer to game time. 

The Sharks simply don’t have the offense to keep this competitive and the Oilers will want to send a message heading into the final stretch. We think the Sharks will net a couple only because Celebrini is a boss and might find a way to find the back of the net a couple of times.