Dallas Wings vs Golden State Valkyries Prediction: Can the Wings Slow Down GS’s Win Streak?

Dallas is playing out the string on a five-losses-in-six-games skid while Golden State just keeps rolling, and Monday night at Chase Center looks like more of the same unless the Wings find an answer they haven’t had all month.

Quick take:

• Pick: Golden State Valkyries -6.5
• Why: The Valkyries are 8-2 in their last 10 and just beat this same Wings team by 18 ten days ago, while Dallas is banged up and reeling
• The number to watch: Dallas has allowed 94-plus points in three of its last four games

The Wings (20-15) sit fourth in the West and have lost five of their last six, most recently falling 98-87 in Indianapolis on Friday despite a 29-point outburst from Paige Bueckers. Golden State (24-9) enters riding a five-game winning streak and hasn’t lost since late July, cementing its spot as the West’s No. 2 seed behind only Minnesota. This is also a bit of a homecoming subplot for Golden State’s Kayla Thornton, who spent years wearing a Dallas jersey before finding new life on the Valkyries’ roster.

Neither club is unfamiliar with the other. These two have already met once this season, on Aug. 7 in Dallas, and Golden State cruised, 94-76. The Wings have had ten days to fix whatever went wrong that night. Based on the last two games, they haven’t.

Why the Line Keeps Growing at Chase Center

Golden State opened as a solid favorite and the market hasn’t budged much — books have the Valkyries at -6.5 on the spread with a moneyline anywhere from -244 to -280 depending on the book, while Dallas sits at +194 to +222 to pull the upset. The total is set at 162.5, and bettors have leaned toward the over given how these two clubs have traded buckets recently — Golden State alone has hit the over in three of its last five outings. This is essentially the same number the Valkyries carried into their last meeting with Dallas, a game they won by 18 wire-to-wire. For bettors tracking how these numbers move throughout the day, live sports betting odds are worth a look before puck-drop-style line movement settles in closer to tip-off.

Recent Form

The gap between these two rosters right now isn’t subtle — one team is trending up, the other is treading water, and the head-to-head number from ten days ago backs that up.

Showing 8 of last 10 meetings

Dallas Is Trying to Play Through the Injury List

Arike Ogunbowale is averaging 14.8 points, 3.1 rebounds and 3.1 assists this season, but she’s shooting just 39.0% from the field and connected on zero of five 3-point attempts in Friday’s loss to Indiana. She’s the Wings’ most experienced closer, but she hasn’t had it going from deep in over a week, and that matters against a Golden State defense that has been suffocating shooters lately. Complicating things further, rookie guard Azzi Fudd remains out with a right knee issue, and Aziaha James is away from the team entirely with a leg injury and no timetable to return. Jessica Shepard is probable after leaving early with an ankle injury last week, but this is a Dallas rotation that’s been forced to piece things together on the fly for weeks now.

It shows on the other end of the floor, too.

Dallas has allowed 94 or more points in three of its last four games, a stretch that includes back-to-back losses in which opponents shot the Wings out of the building.

That defensive slippage matters a lot against a Golden State team built to punish exactly that kind of lapse. Thornton has quietly been a steady two-way piece for Golden State at 8.5 points and 5.0 rebounds a night, and she’ll see plenty of the Wings’ interior on Monday given her familiarity with their personnel. The one name worth monitoring pregame on the Valkyries’ side is Janelle Salaun, who’s questionable with a knee issue after coming off the bench to spark Golden State’s win over Chicago last Wednesday — if she’s limited or sits, expect more minutes for Golden State’s deep bench, which has been one of the best in the league all season.

Bueckers has been the engine for Dallas of late, and her 29-point night against Indiana shows the talent is there individually. But one big scoring night from a rookie hasn’t been enough to offset a defense that keeps bleeding points in the fourth quarter, and against a Golden State team that shares the ball as well as anyone in the West, isolated brilliance rarely wins the possession battle over 40 minutes.

Prediction and Best Bet

Golden State has won five straight, beaten this exact opponent by 18 points ten days ago, and gets to do it again at home in front of its own crowd. Dallas is shorthanded, cold from three, and hasn’t shown it can slow anybody down lately. There’s little in the recent tape to suggest the Wings flip the script here, and the Valkyries’ depth advantage should only grow if Salaun’s knee limits her snaps.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Golden State Valkyries 91, Dallas Wings 80
2. Best Bet: Golden State Valkyries -6.5

Fade the Wings until the defense shows signs of life — Golden State covers this one comfortably at Chase Center.