Cubs vs. Mariners Prediction: Chicago Looks to Avoid Series Sweep Behind Imanaga

The Cubs have already dropped two straight to a Mariners team fighting for its playoff life, and now they’re staring at a sweep in Seattle with their NL Central lead over St. Louis shrinking by the day.

Quick take:

• Pick: Cubs -1.5
• Why: Shota Imanaga gives Chicago a clear starting pitching edge, and a well-rested Cubs lineup should snap out of its funk against a Mariners bullpen that’s been gassed all series
• The number to watch: Imanaga has a 3.77 ERA and 140 strikeouts, the best pure stuff either team will throw all weekend

Chicago rolls into the T-Mobile Park finale at 74-56, still second in the NL Central at six games back of Milwaukee, but comfortably ahead in the Wild Card race. Seattle, meanwhile, sits at 62-68 and 4.0 games out in the AL West — technically alive, realistically running out of road. The Mariners have won two straight in this series, including Saturday’s tight 5-4 decision, which means Sunday is the last chance for the Cubs to avoid getting swept by a team with a losing record.

That’s the story here. Not two teams jockeying for position, but a contender that’s lost its last two games trying to avoid an embarrassing final tally against a club fighting from below .500.

Cubs Look to Avoid a Costly Sweep

Oddsmakers have Chicago as a modest road favorite, with the line opening around -1.5 on the run line and the moneyline sitting close to even at -108 on both sides — a sign the market respects Seattle’s recent form more than the overall records suggest. The total opened at 7.5, with slightly more juice on the over, reflecting two lineups that have traded runs all series (Friday’s game alone finished 6-5 in extras). Shota Imanaga’s presence on the mound is likely the biggest reason Chicago is favored at all; without him, this line probably tilts toward Seattle given how the last two games have gone.

Recent Form

The head-to-head numbers below only tell part of the story — this series has been defined by late-inning chaos, but the underlying pitching matchup on Sunday breaks sharply toward Chicago on paper.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Imanaga’s Edge and a Lineup Due to Wake Up

Shota Imanaga (8-9, 3.77 ERA, 140 strikeouts) takes the ball for Chicago looking to bounce back after a rough final line in his last outing against the White Sox — he still struck out 10 in that start. He’ll oppose Bryce Miller (4-7, 3.71 ERA, 87 strikeouts), who’s actually been sharp of late despite the pedestrian win-loss record; Seattle’s offense simply hasn’t scored much behind him. Miller’s strikeout rate (8.73 K/9) is nearly identical to Imanaga’s, which is part of why the total sits at 7.5 rather than higher.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has been Chicago’s engine all season — he’s hitting .279 with 32 home runs and comes in fresh off a solo shot in Friday’s extra-innings loss. Matt Busch, Kyle Tucker’s replacement in the middle of the order at times, and Alex Bregman have both provided thump, with Bregman going 3-for-5 with two homers and three RBI in Saturday’s loss alone. The problem for Chicago hasn’t been individual production; it’s been execution in high-leverage spots the last two nights.

Cal Raleigh is hitting just .157 since returning from his recent slump, which means Seattle’s typical middle-of-the-order power threat has been mostly neutralized all series.

That’s the crack in Seattle’s lineup Chicago needs to exploit again. Randy Arozarena (.271, 17 homers) and Julio Rodríguez (.252, 19 homers) have carried the offense in Raleigh’s absence from form, and Rodríguez working his way back from an earlier concussion issue this season means Seattle’s lineup construction still isn’t quite what it was in the first half. Add in J.P. Crawford and Colt Emerson both out with wrist injuries, and the Mariners are missing real infield depth even while playing better baseball than their record suggests.

Chicago isn’t at full strength either — Dansby Swanson (side) and Matt Shaw (hand) are both on the 10-day IL, and Kevin Gausman is day-to-day with a hand issue, which is part of why manager Craig Counsell has leaned harder on Imanaga and the healthy arms behind him. For sports bettors tracking value plays across the MLB odds board, series finales like this one — where a good team is trying to avoid an ugly result against a lesser one — often carry more motivation than the standings alone suggest.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Mariners have earned respect this series, but Sunday’s pitching matchup favors Chicago clearly enough to trust the Cubs to right the ship. Imanaga’s strikeout stuff should limit the damage from Arozarena and Rodríguez, and a lineup that’s underperformed for two straight games is due for a better night against a Seattle bullpen that’s already logged heavy innings this weekend.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Chicago Cubs 6, Seattle Mariners 3
2. Best Bet: Cubs on the run line (-1.5)

Chicago has too much talent and too much motivation to let this series end in a sweep, and Imanaga gives them the pitching matchup to make it happen.