Las Vegas Aces vs Golden State Valkyries Prediction: Can the Valkyries Finally Solve A’ja Wilson?

The Aces have beaten the Valkyries three times already this season, and Golden State still hasn’t figured out how to stop Jackie Young in a big moment.

Quick take:

• Pick: Las Vegas Aces on the moneyline
• Why: The Aces own this matchup and enter riding a win, while Golden State has lost two straight and dropped both meetings with Minnesota and Chicago this week
• The number to watch: Aces are a perfect 3-0 head-to-head against the Valkyries this season, winning by an average of nearly 15 points

Las Vegas sits third in the Western Conference at 25-13 and enters this one on a one-game winning streak after thumping Connecticut 101-78 on Thursday. Golden State, meanwhile, has quietly hit a rough patch at the worst time, dropping back-to-back games to Minnesota and Chicago while trying to hold on to the No. 2 seed in the West.

Both teams have already clinched playoff spots, but the standings gap between them is thinner than the head-to-head history suggests. That’s what makes this one interesting.

What the Betting Market Has Said About This Rivalry

Books have consistently leaned Aces in this series all season, with Las Vegas closing as favorites by anywhere from 1.5 to 4.5 points in their three meetings so far, and covering in the two most lopsided results. The market has priced Golden State as live dogs each time given their overall record, but the head-to-head results haven’t been close — the Aces have won those three meetings by 5, 13, and 19 points. Bettors weighing a same-game parlay on this one might also want to check a DraftKings promo code before placing anything.

Recent Form

Neither team is playing its best basketball right now, but Las Vegas has the more encouraging recent trend with three wins in its last five compared to Golden State’s back-to-back losses.

Showing 8 of last 10 meetings

A’ja Wilson and the Aces’ Size Problem for Golden State

A’ja Wilson has been the best player on the floor in every meeting between these two teams this season, and she’s doing it as the WNBA’s leading scorer at 25.9 points per game to go with 9.5 rebounds. Golden State simply hasn’t had an answer for her inside — the Valkyries’ frontcourt, even with Kiah Stokes anchoring the paint, has given up big nights to Wilson in June’s meetings, including a 28-point, 15-rebound outing in their first matchup of the year.

Jackie Young has been the other half of the problem. She scored 27 points on 6-of-8 shooting from three in the Aces’ first home win over Golden State back in June, and she’s shooting efficiently from deep against a Valkyries defense that ranks among the league’s stingiest overall (76.6 points allowed per game) but has struggled specifically with Las Vegas’ perimeter shooting. Golden State’s defensive identity is built around length and switching — Gabby Williams, Veronica Burton and that group have made life miserable for most WNBA offenses this year — but the Aces’ combination of Wilson’s post scoring and Young’s shot-making has consistently cracked it open.

The Aces have outscored the Valkyries by an average of 14.7 points per game across three meetings this season.

That gap is too significant to write off as a fluke, especially with Wilson still playing MVP-caliber basketball down the stretch. Golden State’s offense, led by Williams at 14.4 points per game, has also cooled off in its last two outings, scoring under 70 points in both losses to Minnesota and Chicago.

Chennedy Carter has battled illness at points this season but gives Las Vegas another scoring option off the bench when healthy, adding another layer the Valkyries have to account for defensively. Chelsea Gray continues to run the offense at a high level too, averaging 6.8 assists per game and giving Las Vegas a steady hand in crunch time that Golden State’s backcourt of Veronica Burton and Tiffany Hayes hasn’t consistently matched in this series.

Golden State’s saving grace has been its defense over the course of the full season — a top-tier scoring margin and one of the league’s best point-differentials at plus-5.9 don’t happen by accident. But defense alone hasn’t been enough against this specific opponent. The Valkyries’ half-court offense has bogged down in each of the three meetings, unable to generate consistent good looks against Las Vegas’ length on the perimeter, and that issue has only gotten more glaring as Golden State’s offense has cooled in its last two games overall.

Prediction and Best Bet

Golden State has the talent and defensive pedigree to make this a competitive game on paper, but nothing in the season series says this matchup actually plays out that way. The Aces have the head-to-head edge, the better recent form, and the best player on the floor in Wilson.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 88, Golden State Valkyries 76
2. Best Bet: Aces on the moneyline

Until Golden State proves it can beat Las Vegas even once, betting against the Aces in this series is a tough sell — especially with Wilson locked in and the Valkyries trying to snap a two-game skid.