Cardinals vs. Phillies Prediction: Can St. Louis Slow Philadelphia’s Seven-Game Streak?

Philadelphia has won seven straight and looks nothing like a team that needs to sweat its final six weeks, while St. Louis is playing out the string 13.5 games back — and Saturday’s pitching matchup at Citizens Bank Park could not make that gap more obvious.

Quick take:

• Pick: Phillies -1.5
• Why: Philadelphia’s lineup and bullpen depth overwhelm a Cardinals rotation that just lost its Saturday starter to the injured list
• The number to watch: Andrew Painter’s 6.43 ERA against a Cardinals offense that’s actually found some life lately

The Phillies (71-58) sit second in the NL East but are red-hot, winners of eight of their last ten and currently on a seven-game winning streak that includes taking Friday’s series opener from St. Louis in extra innings, 7-6. The Cardinals (66-64) are a fringe .500 club playing out a lost season in the NL Central, 13.5 games behind Milwaukee, though they’ve quietly gone 6-4 in their last ten and hung with Philadelphia into the 10th on Friday night.

Why the Number Says Philly Big Time

Books have Philadelphia as a healthy home favorite, with MLB odds listing the Phillies at -132 to -135 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line, while St. Louis sits around +112 to +164 depending on the book. The total has settled at 8.5, reflecting two lineups that can score in bunches but a Cardinals bullpen and rotation that have been shaky for weeks. Numberfire’s model actually gives St. Louis a slight edge in raw win probability, but the market is pricing in Philadelphia’s superior roster health and its dominant recent form, and that gap in situational form is the more reliable signal this deep into August.

Recent Form

The form gap between these two clubs has only widened over the past two weeks — one team is peaking at the right time, the other is scrambling to patch a battered pitching staff.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

A Cardinals Rotation Running on Fumes

St. Louis is dealing with real attrition on the mound right now. Andre Pallante landed on the 15-day injured list Friday with right elbow inflammation, and Hunter Dobbins was pulled from that same game with forearm tightness after allowing three runs over four innings. That leaves the Cardinals leaning on inexperienced arms like left-hander Quinn Mathews, who gets Saturday’s start after being recalled from Triple-A Memphis. Mathews has been sharp in a tiny sample — 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA — but he’s making just his third career start against a Phillies lineup that’s seeing the ball extremely well right now.

Philadelphia counters with Andrew Painter, whose 6.43 ERA and 2-8 record look ugly on the surface but understate how much run support and bullpen stability the Phillies have around him. Kyle Schwarber leads all of MLB with 37 home runs this season, batting .244 with a .888 OPS, and Bryce Harper has been steady all year at .257 with 25 homers and 72 RBIs. That top of the order alone forces opposing pitching staffs to be nearly perfect, and St. Louis doesn’t have the pitching depth right now to survive a mistake.

Kyle Schwarber has 37 home runs this season — more than anyone else in baseball.

That kind of power at the top of a lineup changes how a game gets played, especially against a bullpen that’s already been taxed by a rotation in flux. St. Louis has shown fight, evidenced by Friday’s extra-inning battle, but grinding out one close game against a club that’s won seven straight is a different challenge than doing it twice in the same series.

It’s also worth noting Philadelphia isn’t relying solely on its stars. The Phillies rank ninth in the majors in home runs as a team and have gotten timely contributions up and down the order during this stretch, including a series sweep of Miami just before St. Louis arrived in town. That depth matters against a Cardinals club now forced to lean on unproven arms out of the bullpen to cover extra innings whenever the rotation comes up short, which has become a near-nightly occurrence with Pallante and Dobbins both compromised.

St. Louis isn’t without answers. Alec Burleson has quietly put together a strong season at .289 with 21 home runs, and Jordan Walker has provided thump in the middle of the order as well. But asking a lineup missing some thump at the bottom to consistently bail out a shorthanded pitching staff against the sport’s best home run hitter is a tall order over a full weekend series.

Prediction and Best Bet

Philadelphia’s combination of a red-hot streak, a deeper bullpen, and the game’s home run leader in the middle of the order makes this a tough spot for a Cardinals team piecing together its pitching staff on the fly. St. Louis has enough contact ability to keep it from getting out of hand, but Philadelphia should control the middle innings and pull away late.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Phillies 6, Cardinals 3
2. Best Bet: Phillies -1.5

Fading a rotation that just lost a starter to the IL against baseball’s hottest team is the play, and the Phillies’ win streak shows no signs of slowing down this weekend.