Boise State Now the Overwhelming Group of Six Favorite for the College Football Playoff, Odds Show

Boise State’s 38-20 win over Memphis on Saturday did more than improve the Broncos to 1-1 on the season — it reshaped the entire College Football Playoff market for the Group of Six. Boise State is now priced at +230 to reach the 12-team CFP, the best odds of any Group of Six or non-Power 4 program in the country by a wide margin.

The number tells the real story. Boise State’s CFP odds are shorter than those of most Power 4 bubble teams, sitting ahead of Alabama (+144), Oregon (+160) and USC (+170) among the small handful of programs the market views as more likely than not to be on the outside looking in. Only 13 teams nationally carry better odds than the Broncos to punch a ticket to the playoff, a group that includes national title favorites like Notre Dame, Georgia and Texas. For a program picking up its lone automatic bid path through a non-Power 4 conference championship, that kind of positioning this early in September is rare.

How Boise State Took Control of the Group of Six Race

The Broncos entered Week 2 coming off a tough 34-27 loss at then-No. 2 Oregon, a game that showed real competitiveness against one of the sport’s top programs but still left Boise State 0-1. The response against Memphis erased any lingering doubt. Quarterback Maddux Madsen threw for 221 yards and a touchdown while running back Dylan Riley bulldozed the Tigers for 206 rushing yards, and Boise State’s defense held Memphis scoreless in the second half to turn a three-point game into a comfortable 18-point win.

That performance did more than just add a win to the record — it separated Boise State from the rest of the Group of Six field in the eyes of oddsmakers. Memphis, which entered the weekend unbeaten, now sits at +1000 to reach the CFP alongside UTSA. The only real challenger left standing is North Dakota State, the Mountain West’s first-year FBS transplant that improved to 3-0 with a 38-32 win at Air Force and now carries CFP odds around +800. James Madison (+1150), New Mexico and South Florida (both +1300) round out the next tier of contenders, but none carry anywhere near Boise State’s market strength.

What the Odds Movement Means for the Rest of the Season

The format works in Boise State’s favor here: the highest-ranked Group of Six conference champion automatically qualifies for the 12-team playoff, regardless of overall record. That means the Broncos don’t need to run the table against Power 4 competition — they need to win their conference and stay ranked ahead of the other Group of Six contenders when selection time arrives. Their remaining nonconference slate sets up two more data points for the market to digest quickly: Boise State hosts FCS South Dakota this Saturday before hitting the road to face Western Michigan, last year’s MAC champion, on Sept. 26.

Neither game is expected to be competitive on paper, but sportsbooks will be watching margin and performance closely, since the market has shown it reacts fast to Group of Six results — Boise State’s own line moved noticeably after the Memphis win, and North Dakota State’s number tightened after its Air Force upset. A clean sweep of South Dakota and Western Michigan would likely push Boise State’s CFP price even shorter, while any slip-up against a lesser opponent would instantly reopen the door for North Dakota State, Memphis or one of the other contenders lurking in the +1000 range. For now, the betting market is sending a clear signal: Boise State looks like the closest thing to a lock the Group of Six has had in the playoff era, and the rest of the non-Power 4 field has real ground to make up.