Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction: Cam Schlittler Faces Shorthanded Toronto Lineup

The Blue Jays just took two of three from the Yankees a week ago, but this time they’re walking into the Bronx without their MVP-caliber first baseman and the Yankees are getting a bona fide ace on the mound.

Quick take:

• Pick: Yankees -1.5
• Why: Cam Schlittler’s 2.19 ERA against a Toronto lineup missing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is too big an edge to fade
• The number to watch: Schlittler’s 0.94 WHIP, the best mark of any qualified starter in the American League

New York enters Friday at 72-55 and holding onto the top AL Wild Card spot, six and a half games back of Tampa Bay in the East but riding a four-game winning streak into this series opener. Toronto, at 63-66 and sitting fourth in the division, has quietly won seven of its last ten and is fresh off taking two of three from the Rays in St. Petersburg. Records aside, the Blue Jays have given the Yankees fits this season — they beat New York twice in three games at Rogers Centre just last weekend, with Cam Schlittler taking the loss in that series. He gets a chance to flip the script tonight.

Why the Line Moved New York’s Way

Books have the Yankees as heavy home favorites, checking the live MLB odds shows the moneyline sitting around -235 with the total set at 7.5 runs. That price is built almost entirely around the pitching matchup and Toronto’s banged-up lineup — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains on the seven-day concussion IL after a scary collision at third base last week and isn’t expected back until Aug. 22, meaning he misses this opener entirely. Andrés Giménez is also questionable after exiting Thursday’s game in Tampa with hamstring tightness. Take away two everyday starters and ask a Blue Jays offense that already ranks toward the bottom of the league in batting average to solve a pitcher throwing a career season, and the market’s confidence makes sense.

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Both clubs arrive playing better baseball than their overall records suggest, and the head-to-head history between these AL East rivals only adds to the intrigue.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Schlittler’s Ace Turn Meets a Reshuffled Toronto Lineup

Cam Schlittler has been the best story in the Yankees’ rotation all year, sitting at 10-6 with a 2.19 ERA and 189 strikeouts in 152 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 5.5-to-1 is elite, and opponents are hitting just .196 against him on the season. He did lose to Toronto in that Aug. 15 start at Rogers Centre, allowing four runs, but he’ll face a different-looking Blue Jays order this time with Guerrero out of the lineup. On the other side, Toronto counters with Spencer Arrighetti, who’s making just his second start back from a foot injury (Morton’s neuroma) that sidelined him since late July. His command was still rounding into form in his rehab outing, and a 4.60 ERA over 88 innings this year reflects an up-and-down season even before the layoff.

Offensively, Ben Rice has carried the Yankees all summer — he’s hitting .251 with 34 home runs and around 79 RBI, both team-highs by a wide margin, and he’s coming off a walk-off-adjacent stretch that included a big extra-innings shot in Toronto last weekend. Cody Bellinger has settled in nicely since returning from his own injury absence, batting .259 with 11 homers. For Toronto, Ernie Clement’s .285 average leads Blue Jays regulars, and Kazuma Okamoto has quietly put together a 25-homer, 73-RBI season anchoring the middle of the order in Guerrero’s absence.

Schlittler has punched out 189 batters in 152 innings this season, the best strikeout total by a wide margin on either roster.

That swing-and-miss ability matters even more against a lineup down two regulars. Toronto has shown it can still scrap — the Blue Jays scored in bunches during their series win over Boston earlier this month — but doing that against a pitcher this locked in, without Guerrero’s bat in the middle of the order, is a tall ask. It’s not that Toronto can’t hang; it’s that the margin for error just got a lot thinner.

Prediction and Best Bet

Home cooking, a red-hot ace, and a shorthanded opponent point toward a Yankees win, and probably a comfortable one if Schlittler is on. Toronto’s pitching staff has quietly been effective in stretches, but asking Arrighetti to shut down this lineup fresh off the injury list is asking a lot.

The pick:

1. Prediction: New York Yankees 6, Toronto Blue Jays 2
2. Best Bet: Yankees -1.5

With the strikeout arm on the mound and a division-rival lineup missing its best hitter, laying the run and a half with New York is the play.