Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction: Boston’s Hot Streak Faces a Cold Toronto Offense at Fenway

The Red Sox have won five of six and ridden a five-game streak into the weekend, while the Blue Jays are trying to avoid a series sweep at Fenway Park with their best hitter still searching for his power stroke.

Quick take:

• Pick: Boston Red Sox moneyline
• Why: Boston’s bullpen and lineup depth have carried a hot stretch, while Toronto’s offense has gone cold at the worst time
• The number to watch: The Blue Jays have scored one run or fewer in 20 games this season — six of those in July alone

Sunday’s series finale at Fenway Park closes out a weekend set between two AL East also-rans with very different trajectories right now. Boston enters having won 8 of its last 10, a stretch that’s pulled the Red Sox back into the thick of the division mix. Toronto, meanwhile, sits below .500 and has watched its offense sputter through the middle of July, unable to find consistent traction even with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. anchoring the middle of the order.

This is a get-away-day matinee — first pitch at 1:35 p.m. ET — and both clubs will be looking to salvage something from a series that’s leaned Boston’s way so far. For the Red Sox, it’s about building on momentum. For the Blue Jays, it’s about not letting a rough July turn into a lost second half.

Why Boston Is the Popular Side at Home

The market has Boston as the favorite for this one, with the Red Sox getting the nod at home off the strength of their recent form. Toronto is the underdog getting a bit of a plus number on the MLB odds board, and the run total sits in the mid-to-high 8s, reflecting two lineups capable of scoring but neither one an offensive juggernaut right now. Books have leaned toward Boston’s momentum and a Fenway crowd on getaway day, while sharper bettors have pointed to Kevin Gausman’s track record against this lineup as a reason Toronto isn’t a complete non-factor.

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The gap between these two rosters over the last two weeks tells most of the story here — one team is trending up, the other is scuffling to find any rhythm.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Guerrero’s Quiet Summer and Boston’s Outfield Spark

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been the story of Toronto’s disappointing season, and not in a good way. The former MVP candidate has just a handful of home runs on the year and has battled back tightness that’s cost him multiple starts since June. He’s shown flashes — including a two-run blast that snapped a 17-game homer drought — but the power surge Toronto’s offense needs hasn’t materialized, and a lineup built around him has paid the price with all those single-run outings.

Boston, by contrast, has gotten a lift from its outfield mix. Ceddanne Rafaela is hitting over .280 with solid pop for a glove-first player, and Wilyer Abreu has 11 homers and a career-best OPS pace even after cooling off the last week. That kind of complementary production up and down the order is exactly why Boston’s lineup has been able to grind out wins even when the long ball isn’t there — a sharp contrast to Toronto, whose offense goes cold the moment its top bats do.

The Blue Jays have been shut out or held to a single run 20 times this season, six of those in July alone.

That’s the number that matters most in a series finale like this. When Toronto’s lineup goes quiet, it goes quiet completely — no secondary scoring threats to bail out a cold day from the middle of the order. Boston doesn’t have that same problem right now, with contributions coming from multiple spots in the lineup even during stretches where the top of the order isn’t clicking.

Kevin Gausman gives Toronto a fighting chance on the mound. He’s a proven veteran who can keep his team in games even on days the offense doesn’t show up, and this isn’t a matchup he should be afraid of based on past starts against Boston. But asking a pitcher to carry a team that’s struggled to score consistently all month is a tall order, especially on the road against a red-hot opponent.

Prediction and Best Bet

Boston’s depth, its recent form, and the Fenway Park factor on getaway day all point in the same direction. Toronto has the arm to keep this competitive, but the offense hasn’t given itself much margin for error in July, and that trend is more likely to continue than reverse in a series finale against a team playing its best baseball of the summer.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Red Sox 5, Blue Jays 3
2. Best Bet: Red Sox on the moneyline

Boston’s bullpen depth and lineup balance make the Red Sox the safer side to trust in a get-away-day finale, especially with Toronto still searching for consistent offense.