3 QB Passing Props to Back for Bills vs. Vikings on MNF

Monday Night Football in Minneapolis pairs two 6-1 teams at U.S. Bank Stadium, with the Buffalo Bills favored by three points over the Minnesota Vikings and the total sitting around 44.5. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on ESPN and ABC, and the roof is closed, so nothing about the weather will get in the way of the passing game.

The biggest storyline is under center for Minnesota. Kyler Murray (hamstring) has been ruled out, which means Carson Wentz is the starter. That makes this a quarterback-focused night, so we are looking at three passing props: two on yardage and one on turnovers. Lines move between sportsbooks, so shop around before you bet.

Josh Allen Over 237.5 Passing Yards

Josh Allen (#17) is averaging 256.1 passing yards per game this season, with 1,793 yards, 11 touchdowns and 5 interceptions through seven games. Last week against Baltimore he went 21-of-34 for 289 yards and two touchdowns. The number you see will vary: ESPN has been around 238.5, some books are closer to 235, and the best price on the over we found was 229.5 at -114, so it pays to compare before you bet.

The Vikings own the No. 1 scoring defense in the league at 13.3 points per game, so this is not a soft spot on paper. But Allen has cleared this kind of number in five of his seven games, and the dome removes wind and cold from the equation. A closed roof tends to mean cleaner footwork, better timing and more downfield throws.

The other reason to like the over is how Buffalo is likely to attack. Josh Palmer is out at receiver, and left tackle Dion Dawkins and left guard Alec Anderson are both questionable, which could make the run game harder to lean on. Dalton Kincaid (#86) has become a steady target, and Allen can also run for yardage if the pocket gets messy. If Minnesota’s defense dares him to throw, he has the volume to get there.

Carson Wentz Over 209.5 Passing Yards

Carson Wentz (#11) has thrown 39 passes this year, completing 23 for 276 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions across two appearances. That is a small sample, but it comes with a clear message: when Wentz plays, the Vikings are willing to let him throw. The yardage line is set at 209.5 at several books, with DraftKings listing the over at -113.

The matchup is where this prop gets interesting. The Bills allow 254.7 passing yards per game, which ranks 30th in the league. Buffalo is also favored on the road, so Minnesota may be chasing points at some stage of the night, and a trailing team throws more. With Demond Claiborne and Jauan Jennings both out, the Vikings have fewer ways to move the ball, so the passing game and tight end T.J. Hockenson (#87) should absorb plenty of work.

The risk is that Minnesota leans on its defense and keeps the game low-scoring. That is a real possibility given how often this team has hit the under. Even so, 209.5 is a modest bar against a pass defense this leaky, and it only takes a handful of chunk plays to clear it.

Carson Wentz Over 0.5 Interceptions

Quarterback turnover props can look like a gamble, but the setup here makes some sense. Wentz was picked off five times in five starts last season, and he is facing a Bills defense that gets after the quarterback, ranking among the league leaders in pressure rate. Pressure creates bad throws, and bad throws create interceptions.

Game script matters too. If Buffalo gets ahead, Wentz will have to throw more often and take more risks, and that is when interceptions tend to show up. The extra rest on the Buffalo side is another small edge for the Bills defense. The counterpoint is that Wentz has not thrown an interception this season, so this bet is about the matchup rather than his recent form. Odds on this market vary by book, so check the price before you place it.

Our Three Quarterback Props for Monday Night

This card pairs one bet on each side of the ball with a yardage or turnover angle. You can find more ways to use these on our live NFL odds page, and if you are new to props, our betting calculator helps you see what a bet could return. Here are the three plays:

• Josh Allen OVER 237.5 passing yards (-115, best over 229.5 at -114)
• Carson Wentz OVER 209.5 passing yards (-113)
• Carson Wentz OVER 0.5 interceptions (price varies by book)

Allen has the volume and the dome to get there, while Wentz faces a pass defense that ranks 30th. Always bet within your budget, and shop the lines before you lock anything in.