House Panel Advances Bill Barring Congress Members and Families From Prediction Market Trading

A House committee took a significant step toward restricting how members of Congress and their families can participate in prediction markets, advancing legislation that would prohibit lawmakers from trading contracts tied to government policy and political outcomes.

The House Administration Committee voted 5-4 on June 24, 2026, along party lines to move the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act (HR 9367) to the House floor. Republicans voted in favor; Democrats voted against. The vote makes it the first of more than 20 prediction market bills introduced this year to clear a congressional committee.

What the Bill Would Actually Do

The legislation, introduced June 18, 2026 by House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil (R-WI), specifically targets prediction market contracts tied to government policy, government action, political outcomes, or any information a lawmaker might acquire through their congressional service. Under the bill, the prohibition extends beyond members themselves to cover spouses and dependent children.

Penalties are structured to sting. Violators face fines of $2,000 or 10 percent of the covered transaction, whichever is greater, plus forfeiture of all net gains. The bill closes an obvious workaround by explicitly barring the use of congressional office funds or campaign funds to pay fines. Former members who resign before paying penalties can be referred to the Department of Justice.

If signed into law, the bill would take effect 180 days after enactment.

Democratic Opposition Focused on Scope, Not Intent

The party-line vote obscures what is actually a bipartisan concern about lawmakers trading on nonpublic information. Ranking member Joe Morelle (D-NY) did not oppose the concept of restricting congressional prediction market activity. His objection was that the bill was too narrow.

Morelle proposed an amendment to broaden the bill’s scope, arguing it should more closely mirror the Senate’s approach. That amendment failed 5-4 on the same party-line split. His position effectively placed Democrats in opposition to a narrower restriction they found insufficient rather than against the principle of restriction itself.

The Senate adopted an internal rule in late April banning senators and staff from all prediction market trading, a broader prohibition than what the House bill currently proposes.

Political Support and the Path to a Vote

The bill carries backing from House Speaker Mike Johnson and President Trump, giving it significant momentum heading into floor consideration. Republican leadership has indicated they intend to link the bill with a broader congressional stock trading ban as part of a package aimed at a year-end vote.

The stock trading angle matters for context. Calls to restrict lawmakers from trading individual stocks have circulated for years, driven by recurring reports of well-timed trades around legislation and policy announcements. Prediction markets, which emerged as a new category when platforms like Kalshi gained CFTC approval to list political event contracts, created a similar concern: that lawmakers could use nonpublic knowledge of legislative outcomes to profit from contracts predicting those very outcomes.

Why This Matters for Sports Bettors

The sports betting industry has a direct stake in how prediction markets are regulated. Platforms like Kalshi and FanDuel Predicts are currently permitted to operate in all 50 states under CFTC oversight, including states where traditional sports betting remains illegal. For the state-by-state guide of where legal sports betting is available, that distinction matters considerably.

Sportsbooks and their state regulatory partners have argued that prediction markets offering sports event contracts are effectively functioning as sportsbooks without the licensing, tax, and compliance requirements that state-regulated operators must meet. The American Gaming Association has lobbied Congress to strip the CFTC of jurisdiction over sports contracts entirely.

For bettors currently using platforms like DraftKings or FanDuel, the regulatory battles playing out in Washington will ultimately determine how prediction market products are offered alongside or separate from traditional sports betting options. Legislative momentum like the committee vote on the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act signals that Congress is increasingly engaged with the prediction market space, even if the immediate focus is on congressional trading rather than consumer access.

What Happens Next

The bill now moves to the full House for a floor vote. Timing is uncertain, as leadership has signaled it wants to bundle the bill with broader stock trading reform for a year-end legislative package. Whether that timeline holds depends on how quickly the stock trading legislation advances through committee.

With more than 20 prediction market bills introduced in the current congressional session, the committee vote is a marker of growing legislative seriousness rather than a conclusion. The CFTC is simultaneously running its own rulemaking process on sports event contracts, with a public comment period closing July 27. Congressional and regulatory actions are proceeding on separate but overlapping tracks, and the outcome of either could significantly reshape how prediction markets operate in the United States.