3 NHL Shots on Goal Props to Back on October 18

Sunday’s NHL board is a short one, just two games, which makes it easy to focus. Columbus visits Minnesota at 6:00 PM ET, and Carolina travels to Calgary for an 8:00 PM ET puck drop. When the slate is this thin, shots on goal props are a great place to look, because they don’t depend on a puck bouncing in. They depend on how often a player gets the puck and how much he plays.

If you’re new to this market, the idea is simple. A shots on goal prop asks whether a player will put more (or fewer) pucks on net than a set number. Volume is the key word. We’re hunting for guys who shoot a lot, skate a lot, and face a goalie or defense that gives them room. Here are three that fit tonight.

Matt Boldy Over 3.5 Shots on Goal

Boldy is coming off a monster night. He scored a hat trick and added an assist on eight shots in Thursday’s 5-4 win over St. Louis, playing 24:51 in the process. That wasn’t a fluke of one hot game, either. He has 35 shots on goal through eight games this season, which works out to roughly 4.4 per night, and he plays on a top line with Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek alongside him on the first power play unit.

The line I saw was 3.5 with the over around -108 at one book, so check your own app before you bet. The recent trend is encouraging: he’s cleared 3.5 in four of his last seven games. Projection models like this one too, with one popular shot model putting him around 3.57 shots tonight and giving him a 67% chance to get to three or more.

The matchup helps as well. Columbus has been below the league average in expected goals against at five-on-five, and the Blue Jackets may turn to backup Cam Talbot, who carries a .822 save percentage this season. A goalie playing that poorly invites shooters to keep firing. Minnesota is also a home favorite at about -175, so the Wild should spend plenty of time in the offensive zone.

Zach Werenski Over Shots on Goal

Defensemen are one of the best-kept secrets in the shots market, and Werenski is the poster child. He averages just under 29.5 minutes a night and runs the top power play unit, so he gets the puck in shooting positions all game long. Through six games he has 12 shots on goal, and in his last three games he’s played about 28:56 per night.

His raw shot total is a little lower than you’d expect for a player this important, and that’s exactly why this is a spot worth watching. A shot model projects him for roughly 3.05 shots tonight with a 57% chance of landing three or more. For a defenseman who touches the puck as much as anybody in the league, that kind of regression toward his normal workload is a reasonable bet.

Werenski was also in the middle of Saturday’s overtime winner, setting up Kent Johnson, which shows how involved he is in everything Columbus does offensively. The Blue Jackets are underdogs at about +172, which usually means they’ll be chasing the game and the top defenseman will keep jumping into the play. Minnesota’s Jesper Wallstedt is strong in goal at a .921 save percentage, so the goalie isn’t the reason for this pick. The minutes and the volume are. Lines on blueline shot props move around, so confirm the number at your book before you commit.

Sebastian Aho Over Shots on Goal Against Calgary

Carolina is a heavy road favorite at roughly -200 to -220, and the reason is sitting in the opposing net. Calgary’s Dustin Wolf has a .834 save percentage and a 4.85 goals-against average, with the Flames’ other option, Devin Cooley, not faring any better in two appearances. When a goalie is struggling that badly, teams tend to pour shots on him.

Aho is the engine of that attack. He has 13 points (6 goals and 7 assists) and has taken 27 shots through nine games, a clip of about three per game. One model puts his chance of a two-shot night at 70%, and he’s carried a heavy power-play role, taking eight of those shots with the man advantage. Shots tend to follow when Carolina is dominating play, and the Hurricanes should be the better team here by a wide margin.

Check your book for the exact line, since I couldn’t confirm a posted number for him. If it’s sitting at 2.5, the over is a fine spot. If it’s lower, the over looks even stronger given how often he reaches two.

Lock These In

All three picks come down to the same recipe: a player with a lot of ice time, a lot of shooting volume, and a matchup that gives him room. Prices and lines vary from book to book, so shop around, and if you want to compare numbers across apps, our live NHL odds page is a good place to start. Here’s the card for tonight:

• Matt Boldy OVER 3.5 shots on goal (around -108, check your book)
• Zach Werenski OVER his shots on goal line (confirm the number before betting)
• Sebastian Aho OVER his shots on goal line (confirm the number before betting)

Shot props can swing on one power play or one cold stretch, so keep your stakes sensible and only bet what you can afford to lose. If you’re just getting started, our responsible gambling page is worth a read before you place your first wager.