3 NFL Passing Props to Back This Sunday: Prescott, Mahomes, Williams

Week 3 of the NFL season is stacked with quarterbacks who have already shown you exactly what they’re capable of, and Sunday’s slate gives us three clean spots to attack passing props. Dak Prescott gets a Washington secondary that’s been picked apart for two straight seasons, Patrick Mahomes returns to Arrowhead fully healthy against a Colts defense bleeding yards through the air, and Caleb Williams looks like a completely different quarterback than the one Bears fans watched a year ago.

None of these require a leap of faith. Each one is built on a real trend you can see in the box scores, the target shares, and the matchup numbers. Here’s the breakdown on all three, plus exactly why the lines are beatable.

Dak Prescott Over 260.5 Passing Yards vs. Washington

Prescott and the Cowboys host Washington Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET as home favorites, and the yardage prop here is sitting right around 260.5 to 265.5 depending on the book. That number should be soft. Washington ranked 28th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game a season ago at 242.5, and through their first game of 2026 they’ve already surrendered 203 yards on just 25 attempts — a bloated 8.1 yards-per-attempt clip that points to a defense still getting exposed downfield.

Dallas also spreads the ball in a way that keeps Prescott’s volume high no matter who’s getting open. CeeDee Lamb is commanding a 23.1% target share (8.4 looks per game) and George Pickens is right behind him at 22.6% (8.1 targets) — that’s nearly half of Prescott’s attempts going to two receivers who can both win vertically. Add in Jake Ferguson working the middle of the field at a 16.8% share, and Prescott has multiple avenues to rack up yardage even if Washington sells out to stop one guy. Last season, Prescott cleared this exact number in nine of his final ten games against a similar quality of opponent.

Patrick Mahomes Passing Props vs. Indianapolis

Mahomes enters Sunday Night Football with zero injury designation, nine months removed from the torn ACL and LCL that ended his 2025 season early. He didn’t just suit up in Week 1 against Denver — he looked like himself, throwing for 184 yards and two touchdowns while adding a rushing score, with Andy Reid clearly comfortable letting him move around in the pocket and outside of it.

The matchup lines up well. Indianapolis has allowed 251 passing yards per game through its first two weeks, a mark that ranks 27th in the league, and gave up 166 yards on just 61.3% completion to Daniel Jones in Kansas City’s Week 2 win. At home, in a Sunday night spotlight game, with a full complement of weapons including Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, Mahomes’ touchdown prop stands out as the better anchor here — he’s found the end zone through the air in every start since returning, and Kansas City’s red-zone offense still runs through him first. Passing yardage numbers have dipped slightly below his career norms early this season as the offense eases him back in, so lean toward the touchdown props over forcing a big yardage total against a defense that at least generates some pressure up front.

Caleb Williams Over 227.5 Passing Yards, Over 1.5 Passing TDs vs. Minnesota

Williams looked like a different quarterback in Chicago’s Week 1 blowout of Carolina, going 21-of-29 for 269 yards and two touchdowns with a career-high 124.1 passer rating and zero turnovers. That efficiency — 72.4% completion, 9.3 yards per attempt — is the version of Williams the Bears have been waiting to see, and it’s the version that shows up when he hosts Minnesota at Soldier Field Sunday.

The Vikings defense gave up 151 passing yards on 15-of-24 throwing to Carson Wentz’s opponent in Week 1, but that came in a game Minnesota controlled from the jump — expect a much higher volume of dropbacks against Chicago if the Bears are moving the ball the way they did in Week 1. Williams already has a passing touchdown in 15 of his last 18 games dating back to last season, and Chicago’s aggressive approach under this coaching staff means he’s throwing the ball downfield rather than protecting a lead. Both the yardage and touchdown numbers are attainable if Williams plays anywhere close to how he opened the season.

Sunday’s Edge: Lock These In

All three of these props point back to the same idea — pace, target distribution, and defenses that have already shown cracks through the air in the early going. Here’s the full slate to build around Sunday:

• Dak Prescott Over 260.5 Passing Yards vs. Washington
• Patrick Mahomes Anytime Passing TD vs. Indianapolis (check your book for current odds)
• Caleb Williams Over 227.5 Passing Yards AND Over 1.5 Passing TDs vs. Minnesota

If you’re building a same-game parlay or spreading these across your board, all three carry real statistical backing rather than just name recognition — check the latest NFL odds before locking anything in, since lines can move throughout the week.