3 QB Passing Props to Back for Buccaneers vs. Bears on Sunday Night Football

Sunday Night Football brings the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) to Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears (6-2) at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. Chicago is a roughly six-point favorite with a game total around 47.5. That sets up a quarterback-focused night, and the passing props for both signal-callers are worth a close look.

If you are new to player props, here is the quick version. A prop is a bet on one player’s individual stat rather than who wins the game. The “line” is the number the sportsbook sets, such as 245.5 passing yards. You pick the over (the player finishes above that number) or the under (below it). Below are three quarterback props we like, built on recent form and how each offense is being used.

Caleb Williams Over 20.5 Pass Completions

Start with the safest-looking number on the board. Williams has completed 70.9 percent of his throws this season and went 24-for-34 against Seattle last Monday. Since returning from his hamstring injury he has also completed 30 passes at Atlanta and 22 against New England, so he has cleared 20 completions in each of his last three starts. He averages 22.4 completions per game this season, which sits comfortably above the line.

The matchup helps too. Tampa Bay has leaned on its run game lately, but a Bears offense with tight end Cole Kmet on injured reserve is likely to keep leaning on short, high-percentage throws to stay on schedule. Chicago is also a heavy favorite, which usually means plenty of dropbacks early. Books have this at 20.5, with the over priced around -129 at DraftKings, so you pay a little extra for a stat Williams has hit in most of his games.

Caleb Williams Under 245.5 Passing Yards

This one runs against the grain of Williams’ hot streak, so it deserves an explanation. Since his hamstring return he has thrown for 305, 308 and 247 yards, and he averages 253.4 per game on the season with a 104.6 passer rating. The books know all of that, which is why the number has crept up to 245.5 at DraftKings, 246.5 at bet365, 247.5 at some shops, and 248.5 at BetMGM. FanDuel is the outlier at 243.5.

The case for the under is about game script rather than talent. Chicago is a big favorite at home, and Tampa Bay has run the ball 104 times against just 16 pass plays over its last two games, a style that shortens the game and limits possessions. If the Bears build a lead and lean on the ground game late, Williams may not need 40 attempts. Projection models are lukewarm on the over as well, with one landing at roughly 235 yards, and some sharper bettors have leaned under. The pick is a modest one, so shop for the best number and treat 245.5 or higher as the sweet spot.

Baker Mayfield Under 18.5 Pass Completions

Mayfield’s recent workload is the reason to go under. In his first game back from a dislocated right thumb he went 7-for-11 for 64 yards in Charlotte, then went 0-for-3 in a downpour against Atlanta as Tampa Bay became the first team since 1974 to win a game without a completed pass. The Bucs have won two straight by pounding the ball, and that approach is not expected to change against a Chicago defense that ranks third against the run.

Wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (foot) is questionable but practiced fully on Thursday and Friday, and that could add some life to the passing game. Even so, models see Tampa Bay as one of the least pass-heavy offenses on the slate, with a pass rate near 50 percent. Mayfield’s completion line sits at 18.5 across the market, with the under priced around -105 at BetMGM, and projections land closer to 17. His passing yards total is set near 211.5, which also looks high for a run-first team, so anyone wanting a second angle could pair the completions under with a lean on his yardage under as well.

Quarterback Props Recap for Bucs at Bears

Here are the three plays, with lines that can shift before kickoff, so confirm the number at your sportsbook before you bet. Tracking the movement across books is easy with the live NFL odds page, and if you are still choosing where to play, our sportsbook reviews are a good starting point.

• Caleb Williams OVER 20.5 pass completions (about -129 at DraftKings)
• Caleb Williams UNDER 245.5 passing yards (shop for 245.5 or higher)
• Baker Mayfield UNDER 18.5 pass completions (about -105 at BetMGM)

The common thread is that Chicago should control the night through efficient passing and a Tampa Bay offense that would rather run. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and keep it fun.