Buccaneers vs. Bears SNF Preview: Odds, Prediction, Best Bet

Sunday Night Football brings a matchup that looks lopsided on paper but has a few wrinkles worth watching. The 3-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Soldier Field to face the 6-2 Chicago Bears at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC, and it is a showdown between two former No. 1 overall picks, Baker Mayfield and Caleb Williams, who are meeting for the first time. Chicago has won three straight and is coming off a 34-17 win in Seattle, while Tampa Bay has won two in a row and still sits a half game behind the Carolina Panthers in the NFC South.

What the Betting Line Says About Bears vs. Bucs

If you are new to point spreads, here is the simple version: the Bears are favored by about six points, which means the oddsmakers expect Chicago to win by roughly a touchdown. DraftKings has the Bears at -6, while bet365 has them at -5.5, and the line opened around Bears -6.5 before dipping slightly. On the moneyline, which is just a bet on who wins the game, Chicago sits around -250 to -270 and Tampa Bay around +205 to +220. The total, which is the combined points both teams are expected to score, is set at 46.5.

That total is interesting because both teams have leaned heavily on running the football. Runs keep the clock moving and tend to hold scores down, which is one reason the number is not higher despite how well Chicago has been scoring. You can compare how different books are pricing this game anytime on the live NFL odds page.

Two Streaking Teams With Very Different Stories

Chicago’s story starts with Williams. After missing three games with a hamstring injury, he has come back and played some of the cleanest football of his career. Tampa Bay’s own preview notes his passer rating is up to 104.6 this season with a 6-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and the Bears have scored 30 or more points in each game since he returned. He has help, too: running back D’Andre Swift has 545 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on 143 carries, wide receiver Luther Burden has 42 catches for 547 yards, and tight end Colston Loveland has 33 catches for 309 yards. Chicago’s offense ranks third in the NFL in total yards, and the defense is seventh in yards allowed, a group that just added defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons in a trade.

Tampa Bay’s story is a lot more unusual. In last week’s 16-0 shutout of Atlanta, played in heavy rain, the Bucs ran for 324 yards and did not complete a single pass, making them the first team in 52 years to win a game that way. Over their last two games they have piled up 584 rushing yards, tops in the league, after a 43-13 win at Carolina. Mayfield is back from a dislocated right thumb that cost him three games, but he has only 7 completions for 64 yards and a touchdown in the two games since, and the Bucs rank last in the NFL in passing yards per game at 131.4. The defense has helped by creating about three takeaways per game over the past four weeks.

The injury report matters here too. Tampa Bay will be without outside linebacker Yaya Diaby, who had three sacks against Carolina in Week 7 but is out with a knee injury, which takes away a pass rusher against a quarterback who excels at extending plays. Receiver Emeka Egbuka is questionable after returning to full practice, and his return would give Mayfield another target. For Chicago, running back Kyle Monangai is questionable with a thumb and toe issue, and defensive backs Malik Muhammad II and Tyrique Stevenson are listed questionable as well.

A Rivalry With Some Bucs Bright Spots

Chicago leads the all-time series 40-22, but the history in recent years leans toward Tampa Bay. The Bucs have won four of the last six meetings, including a 27-17 victory in 2023 in the most recent matchup, and a 38-3 rout in 2021. The Bears last beat Tampa Bay in 2020 by a 20-19 score. None of that carries over to Sunday night, but it does show the Bucs have not been intimidated by Chicago in recent years.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Bears are the better team right now, and playing at home with Williams in rhythm gives them a clear edge. Tampa Bay’s run game is a real weapon, and Chicago’s run defense, which ranks fourth in yards allowed, will be tested. But the Bucs offense relies on a passing game that has not shown it can move the ball if Chicago takes away the run, and missing Diaby hurts the pass rush. Expect Chicago to control the game, with the Bucs’ running game keeping it respectable.

• Prediction: Chicago Bears 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
• Best Bet: Buccaneers +6 on the spread

Six points is a lot for a team that can control the clock with a historically productive ground game and has been forcing turnovers. Chicago should win, but a touchdown is a big cushion for a Tampa Bay team that has covered with defense and rushing yards, so the points with the Bucs are the safer side. If you would rather keep it simple, the Bears on the moneyline is the straightforward winner pick, though the -250 price leaves little value. New to betting? Start with our betting calculator to understand payouts before you wager, and always bet responsibly.