3 MLB Strikeout Props to Back on Sunday: Detmers, Skubal, and Tong

Sunday’s MLB slate is stacked with strikeout upside, and three starters stand out as prime targets for the strikeout props market: Reid Detmers against a Seattle lineup that swings and misses at an elite clip, Tarik Skubal carrying a dominant 2026 season into a soft Cincinnati offense, and Mets rookie Jonah Tong facing a line the market has set aggressively low. Each of these situations has a clear, explainable edge once you dig into the matchup.

None of these are coin-flip lines. The stats, the opposing lineups, and the recent form all point in the same direction. Here’s the breakdown on all three.

Reid Detmers Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Seattle

Detmers takes the mound for the Angels against Seattle at Angel Stadium (9:38pm ET first pitch) with a strikeout rate that ranks among the best in baseball this year — he’s punching out batters at a 29% K/BF clip, elite territory for any starter. His season line sits at 191 strikeouts, and while some books have pushed this prop up to 7.5, the more approachable number for bettors is the 5.5 over, which projects as close to a lock given his current form.

The matchup only sharpens the case. Seattle’s lineup whiffs at roughly a 23% clip as a team, meaning Detmers isn’t just a good strikeout arm facing an average opponent — he’s a swing-and-miss pitcher lined up against hitters who are more likely than most to provide exactly that outcome. Run the numbers forward and the projection lands around 6.4 strikeouts, comfortably clearing the 5.5 mark and giving real cushion even against the more aggressive 7.5 alternate line some sportsbooks are offering.

Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 Strikeouts vs. Cincinnati

Skubal has been one of the most dominant strikeout arms in the sport all season, and Sunday’s matchup with the Reds at Great American Ball Park (6:40pm ET) sets up as another favorable spot. He carries a 9-7 record with a 2.84 ERA across 139.2 innings this year, with 164 strikeouts to his name — numbers that place him among the league’s elite when it comes to missing bats deep into games.

Cincinnati’s offense has struggled for most of the season, sitting at 70-79 with a lineup that hasn’t given opposing pitchers much resistance. That combination — a front-line strikeout arm against a lineup that’s been vulnerable all year — supports a projection in the 6.7 to 7.0 strikeout range on its own merits, and Skubal has shown he can push well past his baseline against soft competition. The 7.5 line asks him to be at his best, but his stuff and this matchup both point toward him getting there.

Jonah Tong Over 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Baltimore

Tong is the riskiest of the three picks here, and it’s worth being upfront about why: he’s a rookie with a small MLB sample, sitting at 2-1 with a 4.80 ERA and just 14 strikeouts across 15 innings this season. The juice on the 4.5 line — priced at -244 — tells you the market has already leaned toward the under being the safer side.

But the swing-and-miss ability underneath those early results is real. Tong generated 12 whiffs through his first two innings in one start this year, tying a Mets Statcast-era record for a pitcher that early in a game, and he followed that with a seven-strikeout outing in his most recent turn. Facing Baltimore at Citi Field (7:10pm ET), the stuff projects to roughly 5.1 strikeouts — enough to clear 4.5, even if the short track record and pricey odds make this the highest-variance play of the three. Bettors comfortable with a rookie-risk profile get real swing-and-miss upside here that the market hasn’t fully priced in.

Lock These In

All three of these strikeout props are backed by clear statistical and matchup-based reasoning rather than a hunch. Check your book for the latest lines before locking anything in, since numbers can move closer to first pitch.

• Reid Detmers OVER 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Seattle
• Tarik Skubal OVER 7.5 Strikeouts vs. Cincinnati
• Jonah Tong OVER 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Baltimore (-244)

Detmers and Skubal offer the safest floor of the trio, while Tong is the value swing for anyone looking to add some risk-reward to their MLB odds card today.