3 MLB Strikeout Props to Back on July 10

Friday night’s MLB slate is loaded with quality starting pitching, and three arms in particular are set up to rack up strikeouts against lineups that are either cold, banged up, or just plain overmatched. Whether you’re looking to attack a single prop or stack a few into a parlay, these are the punch-out plays worth circling before first pitch.

All three of these picks are backed by real, recent form — not season-long averages that ignore how a guy is actually throwing right now. Here’s the breakdown.

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Chris Sale Strikeouts Over 6.5 vs. Cardinals

Chris Sale takes the mound at Busch Stadium on Friday chasing a piece of Braves history, and he’s doing it with swing-and-miss stuff that’s been humming for two months. Sale is averaging 7.4 strikeouts per game over his last 10 starts, and in that stretch he’s posted outings of 11, 8, 8, 8, 6, 6, 7, and 10 punchouts. The lone dips came against contact-oriented lineups — the Cardinals are not that.

St. Louis strikes out at a well-above-average clip and has struggled against left-handed spin all year. Sale’s strikeout line is sitting around 6.5, and he’s cleared that number in six of his last eight starts. With Atlanta needing this one and Sale on regular rest, there’s little reason to expect a quick hook if he’s rolling.

The market has priced Sale as a heavy favorite in this matchup (Atlanta -164 on the moneyline), which tells you oddsmakers expect him to control the game from the mound. Betting the strikeout over is a way to get paid on exactly that expectation.

Aaron Nola Strikeouts Over 5.5 vs. Tigers

Aaron Nola has quietly been one of the more underrated punch-out arms over the last month. Across his last seven starts he’s racked up 38 strikeouts in 35.1 innings — nearly a strikeout per inning — including a season-high 7 K’s in his most recent outing against Kansas City. He followed that up with another 7-strikeout performance his last time out.

Detroit’s lineup has real swing-and-miss in the middle of the order, and Nola has shown he can carve up teams that chase. His season ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but the strikeout stuff has been sharper than the run prevention, which is exactly the gap bettors want to exploit on a prop like this.

This one lines up as a pitchers’ duel on paper, with the total sitting right around 8.5 runs. When two competent starters are dealing, strikeout props tend to hit at a healthy clip because both guys are working deep into counts.

Jack Flaherty Strikeouts Over 5.5 vs. Phillies

Jack Flaherty’s overall numbers this year haven’t been pretty, but dig into his last month and the strikeout trend is undeniable. Over his last seven starts he’s put up 44 strikeouts in just 32.2 innings — better than a strikeout per inning — and his last three outings have gone 5, 9, and 5 strikeouts. The stuff is missing bats even when the results haven’t followed.

Philadelphia’s lineup strikes out plenty against velocity mixed with a sharp breaking ball, which is Flaherty’s bread and butter. He’s started fewer than 20 games this season, so his arm should be fresh, and Detroit needs length from him with a taxed bullpen this week.

Facing Nola in what should be a tight, low-scoring game, Flaherty has every incentive to pitch deep and pitch aggressively. That combination of opportunity and swing-and-miss stuff makes this a strong stand-alone play.

Today’s Edge: Stack the Strikeouts

All three of these arms are trending in the right direction against matchups that play right into their strengths. Sale is the safest of the bunch given his workload and Atlanta’s need to win, while Nola and Flaherty going head-to-head all but guarantees both will be pushed for length and punchouts in a game that projects as a low-scoring affair.

• Chris Sale OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (check your book for current odds)
• Aaron Nola OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (check your book for current odds)
• Jack Flaherty OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (check your book for current odds)

Lock in the numbers with your preferred sportsbook before first pitch, since lines can move as lineups are finalized. All three arms have the recent form and matchup to back it up. Need help with parlay math? Run the numbers through our Betting Calculator before you place anything.