3 MLB Strikeout Props to Back on August 9: Misiorowski, Schlittler, and a Jared Jones Fade

Sunday’s MLB slate is stacked with strikeout upside, and three starters stand out for very different reasons. One is baseball’s most electric arm riding a career-high workload against a shaky Twins lineup, another gets a dream matchup against a Braves offense that simply doesn’t lay off pitches, and the third is a hard-throwing Pirate who’s actually a fade candidate against a Mets lineup that’s been putting the bat on the ball all series.

Strikeout props live and die on matchup context — not just raw stuff — and each of these three lines has a clear “why” behind it once you dig into the numbers. Here’s the breakdown on all three, including where the market has them priced.

Jacob Misiorowski Is Missing Bats at a Historic Clip

Jacob Misiorowski (#32, Brewers) leads the entire National League in strikeouts with 195 through 21 starts, and he’s not slowing down — over his last 15 outings he’s punched out 144 batters in 94.1 innings, a 13.8 K/9 pace that ranks among the best in baseball. His last time out against the Angels, he struck out 10 over seven innings on just one walk, and two starts before that he fanned 12 Rockies hitters in five innings.

The OVER 8.5 strikeouts (-120) angle against the Twins today makes sense given his season-long 40.6% strikeout rate — Minnesota’s lineup has stumbled to a .244 team average and has shown real swing-and-miss issues against high-velocity arms this season. Misiorowski averages roughly 9.3 punchouts per start in 2026, and he’s cleared 8.5 strikeouts in the majority of his outings dating back to May. American Family Field has been a strikeout haven for him too — he’s racked up 116 Ks in just 71.1 innings at home this year.

Cam Schlittler Draws a Free-Swinging Braves Lineup

Cam Schlittler (#31, Yankees) has quietly turned into one of the AL’s best strikeout arms, sitting at 171 strikeouts and a 2.26 ERA across 139.2 innings this season — a 7.1 K/game average with a 30.8% strikeout rate. He’s coming off a strong final start of this Braves series look, and the Yankees are chasing a sweep at home.

What makes the OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-115) so appealing is the opponent. Atlanta’s lineup leads the league in chase rate, meaning they expand the zone and swing at pitches out of the strike zone more than any team in baseball. That’s precisely the profile a swing-and-miss starter like Schlittler wants to see — hitters who chase are hitters who whiff. He’s cleared 6.5 strikeouts in the bulk of his recent starts, and against a Braves order that will happily hunt pitches off the plate, this line looks soft. Grant Holmes gets the ball for Atlanta, but this one’s about what Schlittler does with the free-swingers he’s facing.

Jared Jones Is a Fade Against a Mets Lineup Seeing the Ball Well

Jared Jones (#17, Pirates) has the stuff to rack up strikeouts — he’s sitting on 62 in just 56 innings this season — but his 28.3% strikeout rate this year is a step down from his ceiling, and his recent form supports betting against the total rather than for it. In his last 10 starts, he’s gone over 5.5 strikeouts just three times, a 30% hit rate that’s well below what the market often implies for a pitcher with his raw arm strength.

The Mets have been aggressive at the plate in this series, taking the Pirates deep in a 6-4 win just two days ago before Pittsburgh bounced back with a 9-0 shutout of their own. New York’s lineup has made consistent contact against Pittsburgh pitching all weekend, and Jones has trended toward shorter, contact-heavy outings rather than swing-and-miss dominance lately — his last start against Milwaukee produced just four strikeouts. The UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-144 on DraftKings) banks on that recent form continuing against a Mets order that isn’t chasing much right now.

Today’s Strikeout Edge

All three of these lines lean on the same principle — matchups and recent form matter more than name value. Misiorowski and Schlittler both get lineups built to swing and miss; Jones gets a Mets team that’s been making contact. Check your book for the latest numbers on the live MLB odds page before locking anything in, since lines can move closer to first pitch.

• Jacob Misiorowski OVER 8.5 strikeouts (-120)
• Cam Schlittler OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-115)
• Jared Jones UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-144)

Three different reads on three different pitchers, but the underlying logic is the same: bet the matchup, not just the arm.