3 MLB Strikeout Props to Back on August 16: Cease, Burke, Skubal All Set to Rack Up Punchouts

Sunday’s MLB slate is loaded with aces on the mound, and that means one thing for prop bettors: strikeouts. Three starters in particular stand out as prime targets for the over, each backed by elite season-long numbers and matchups that play right into their hands.

From a Cy Young frontrunner in Toronto to a pair of under-the-radar workhorses in Chicago and Los Angeles, here are three strikeout props worth locking in before first pitch.

Dylan Cease Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-118)

Dylan Cease has been the best strikeout pitcher in the American League this season, and it isn’t particularly close. He leads the AL with 191 strikeouts across 22 starts, averaging 8.7 punchouts per outing, a number that puts him firmly in Cy Young conversation territory. His 2.40 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 131.1 innings show this isn’t just swing-and-miss stuff without results — Cease has been dominant from start to finish.

He’s drawn the Yankees for this one, a lineup that strikes out at an above-average clip and has already seen what Cease can do this season. In his lone start against New York back in May, Cease piled up nine strikeouts in just five innings, walking four but overpowering the Yankees’ hitters with swing-and-miss stuff even in a rough outing results-wise. That start is actually the encouraging piece here: even when his command wasn’t sharp, the strikeouts still came in bunches.

Betting a full run over his season average of 8.7 K’s per game, this line at 8.5 looks soft given how automatic Cease has been trending toward double-digit strikeout nights all season.

Sean Burke Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)

Sean Burke doesn’t get the national attention Cease does, but the White Sox right-hander has quietly put together a strong season: 152 strikeouts in 24 starts, good for 6.3 per outing, with a sharp 2.99 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 135.2 innings. Burke ranks among the AL’s top strikeout arms this year, and his recent form has been trending up, not down.

Look at his last three outings: eight strikeouts in seven innings against Cincinnati, four in a shorter outing at Boston, and ten strikeouts in six innings against the Yankees back on July 30. That’s a pitcher who has cleared this number in two of his last three starts, and comfortably so in the games where he got real length.

Facing Detroit on the road at Comerica Park, Burke gets a Tigers lineup that has been inconsistent against right-handed power arms this season. With his season average already sitting nearly a full strikeout above this line, and his stuff clearly playing well against the composition of Detroit’s order, the over here looks like one of the safer swings on the board today.

Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+126)

Tarik Skubal making his home debut for the Dodgers is one of the more fascinating storylines of the year, and the strikeout prop reflects genuine uncertainty around a pitcher settling into a new home ballpark. His season numbers, though, remain elite: 128 strikeouts across 18 starts, a 7.1 K per game average, with the kind of swing-and-miss profile that’s made him one of the most feared arms in baseball for years.

The plus-money odds here (+126) suggest the market isn’t fully trusting the transition, but Skubal’s underlying stuff hasn’t changed. He’s been especially nasty in the first inning all season, striking out hitters at a rate that ranks among the best in MLB to open games, a sign his command and velocity are both there right out of the gate regardless of ballpark.

Milwaukee’s lineup will see plenty of swing-and-miss stuff from Skubal today, and at plus money for a pitcher averaging 7.1 strikeouts a start, this is real value if he settles in even a start or two into his new home ballpark. The plus-money price tag makes this the highest-upside play of the day even with a touch more variance attached.

Lock These In

All three of these arms bring swing-and-miss stuff and season-long strikeout rates that clear their respective lines. Cease is in the middle of a Cy Young-caliber season, Burke has been trending up in back-to-back starts, and Skubal carries elite underlying stuff even in a new environment. Check your book for the latest numbers before placing anything, since lines can shift closer to first pitch.

• Dylan Cease Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-118)
• Sean Burke Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)
• Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+126)

If you’re looking to get a number down on any of these, check the live MLB odds page for the most current lines before first pitch.