#22 Auburn vs #11 Oklahoma Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Pick

The Auburn Tigers (22) head to Norman later today for a massive Week 4 SEC matchup against the Oklahoma Sooners (11). Both teams are coming into the game at 3-0, both have looked impressive in different ways, and this is the kind of early-season game that will most likely shape the playoff picture down the line. With the kickoff set for 2:30 p.m. CT at Memorial Stadium, you can catch this game on ABC.

Game Details

Auburn comes in fresh off a 31-15 win over South Alabama. It wasn’t a big game, but nonetheless, QB Jackson Arnold continued to show growth. Arnold has thrown for 501 yards and 4 touchdowns this season, though he’s also taken 6 sacks in just 3 games. That protection issue is something to watch against an Oklahoma defense that knows how to get to the quarterback.

The Tigers’ real engine has been Jeremiah Cobb. The RB has piled up 314 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns at an impressive 6.8 yards per carry. Cobb’s consistency has allowed Auburn to control tempo and take pressure off Arnold, while WR Eric Singleton Jr. has been the top target, catching 13 passes for 149 yards and 2 TDs.

Defensively, Auburn is allowing just 14 PPG, and Keldric Crawford has been a force up front with 3 sacks and 16 total tackles. That group has forced turnovers to close games out, but they’ll be facing an Oklahoma offense unlike anything they’ve seen yet in the short season so far.

Oklahoma, on the other hand, looks like one of the most balanced teams in the NCAA. Washington State transfer John Mateer has completely transformed the Sooners’ attack. He’s thrown for a whopping 944 yards with 5 TDs and has also added 161 rushing yards, making him a true dual threat that is difficult for defenses to contain. RB Tory Blaylock gives Oklahoma some more balance with 166 yards and 3 touchdowns, while TE Jaren Kanak has become Mateer’s favorite target, leading with 245 reception yards.

Defensively, the Sooners have been absolutely lights out. They’re allowing just 6.3 PPG, the 9th-best mark in the nation, and are holding teams to under 20 rushing yards per game more than Auburn. Linebacker Sammy Omosigho has been everywhere, leading with 14 tackles and 1.5 sacks. He’s probably the biggest threat Arnold will have to face.

Market Odds

Oklahoma is listed as a 6.5-point favorite at home, sitting at -112. The Sooners sit at -250 on the moneyline, while Auburn is priced as the underdog at +205. The over/under total is set at 47.5 points.

These odds feel fairly accurate with how these 2 powerhouses have played so far. They might be giving Oklahoma a little bit of extra juice for having the home-field advantage, but nonetheless, there’s not a huge spread on these 2 teams.

Tigers vs Sooners Analysis

This game sets up as Auburn’s ground attack versus Oklahoma’s defensive front. Cobb has been one of the most efficient backs in the SEC so far, but the Sooners’ ability to control the LOS will test him. Auburn ranks 20th nationally in rushing yards per game at 242, while Oklahoma ranks just 127th at 156.3. The flip side is passing offense, where Oklahoma has a massive edge as they’re averaging 316 yards per game compared to Auburn’s 173.7.

That gap is where we think the Sooners can take over. Mateer has shown accuracy and poise as he’s completed nearly 68% of his throws, and Auburn’s secondary has yet to face a passing attack this efficient and this solid. The Tigers will likely try to slow the pace with long drives, but if they fall behind early, it may be tough for Arnold to trade blows through the air.

Still, Auburn has been gritty and fighting till the end. They’ve covered the spread in 6 straight games and have a defense that knows how to generate takeaways. If Arnold avoids turnovers and Cobb finds early lanes, Auburn has a chance to keep it tight into the 4th quarter. The real question is whether Auburn’s offensive line can hold up against Oklahoma’s relentless front 7, which is averaging close to 3 sacks per game. That’s a lot of pressure.

Another factor is that Auburn has struggled in road games against ranked opponents, losing 7 of its last 8 in that spot. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has covered twice in 3 tries this season and has been dominant at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 27 points.

Prediction and Best Pick

This one feels like a battle for 3 quarters of football before Oklahoma’s depth and defense tip the scales. Auburn’s run game will keep them in it early, but Mateer’s ability to stretch the field, combined with a Sooners defense that allows less than a TD per game, makes the difference.

• Prediction: Oklahoma 27, Auburn 20
• Best Bet: Oklahoma -6.5

The Sooners’ passing advantage and defensive dominance at home make them the stronger side for this bet. Sure, Auburn will compete, but Oklahoma has too many weapons on both sides of the ball to let this slip.