Toronto Tempo vs. Golden State Valkyries Prediction: Can the Tempo Snap a Six-Game Skid at Chase Center?

The Golden State Valkyries have already dealt the Toronto Tempo two beatdowns in the last month, and now they get to do it again in the same building on back-to-back nights.

Quick take:

• Pick: Golden State Valkyries -13.5
• Why: Toronto has lost 10 of its last 11 games and is playing shorthanded on the road, while Golden State is locked in at Chase Center
• The number to watch: Valkyries are 12-4 at home this season; Tempo are 4-8 away

Toronto (10-19) heads back onto the Chase Center floor Tuesday night just two days after Golden State throttled it 96-79 in the opener of this three-game stretch. The Tempo have now dropped six straight, and the losing skid has extended to 10 defeats in their last 11 outings. Golden State (20-9) enters riding a modest one-game winning streak, but the bigger story is what came before it — a franchise-record nine-game run that only just snapped a few weeks ago against Washington and Phoenix.

This is the second of back-to-back meetings between the two clubs at Chase Center, part of a stretch that will see them play three times in a matter of days. Golden State has controlled the head-to-head series so far, sweeping both prior meetings this season.

The Line Barely Budged After Sunday’s Blowout

Golden State opened as roughly 13-point favorites for the rematch and the market hasn’t moved much, even after covering with room to spare on Sunday. Books have the Valkyries at -13.5 with the total sitting at 168.5, and the moneyline reflects just how lopsided this is expected to be — Golden State is priced around -1053, meaning bettors would need to risk over a thousand dollars just to profit a hundred. Toronto sits out at +630. Bettors tracking the full live odds board have watched this line hold firm all week. That’s about as close to a foregone conclusion as the WNBA market gets, and it’s not hard to see why after the way Sunday’s game played out.

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The gap between these two rosters right now isn’t subtle — Golden State has been one of the league’s steadiest teams over its last stretch of games, while Toronto has been in freefall since the All-Star break.

Showing 2 of last 10 meetings

Toronto’s Injury Report Makes This Even Steeper

Marina Mabrey, Toronto’s All-Star guard and leading scorer at 20.9 points per game, was ruled out of Sunday’s loss with a neck injury and remains a question mark for the second leg of this back-to-back. Newly acquired forward Aneesah Morrow, picked up from Connecticut just days before the series began, was also held out as she reconditions and still hasn’t made her Tempo debut. Guard Brittney Sykes (foot) rounded out an injury list that left interim head coach Sandy Brondello thin on firepower against a deep Golden State roster.

Without Mabrey, the scoring burden fell to forward Nyara Sabally, who put up 19 points and eight rebounds in Sunday’s loss — a respectable individual effort that still wasn’t close to enough. Isabelle Harrison has also been a steady frontcourt piece for Toronto this season, averaging 13.5 points and 6.2 rebounds while shooting 49.1% from the floor, and she’ll need a big two-way effort again if the Tempo hope to make this competitive.

Golden State has outscored Toronto by a combined 25 points across the first two meetings of this season series.

On the other side, Golden State has spread the production around all year, and Sunday was a perfect example. Janelle Salaun came off the bench for a game-high 24 points, and Veronica Burton chipped in 17 points and six assists running the offense. Kayla Thornton has also been a steady double-digit rebounder for the Valkyries all season. That kind of depth is exactly what makes Golden State so tough to slow down over a full 40 minutes — Toronto can trade buckets for stretches, but the Valkyries have shown all year they can lean on a rotating cast when the top options get cold.

Golden State’s 12-4 mark at Chase Center is no accident, either. The building has been rocking with sellout crowds for much of the season, and this club has consistently closed out home games with strong fourth quarters — exactly what happened Sunday, when a 29-18 fourth quarter put the game away for good.

Prediction and Best Bet

Toronto’s shorthanded roster, its 10-losses-in-11-games spiral, and a road trip that already has it down 0-1 in this specific series all point the same direction. Golden State has the deeper roster, the home floor, and a defense that has made life miserable for Toronto’s shooters in each of the first two meetings this year.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Golden State Valkyries 92, Toronto Tempo 76
2. Best Bet: Golden State Valkyries -13.5

Golden State has covered comfortably in this exact matchup once already this week, and nothing about Toronto’s situation suggests Tuesday looks any different.