Who would have thought that the Vegas Raiders would produce the top rushing back in the league last season? Not many, but Josh Jacobs got the job done as he dashed for 1650 yards. Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb, a couple of less surprising names, were the only other 2 to surpass 1500 yards on the ground.
Saquon Barkley had a great bounce-back season, finishing with 1300 yards. A couple of big names failed to exceed 1000 yards last year. Alvin Kamara and Jonathan Taylor were two of those big names. It will be interesting to see if either of them bounces back as Barkley did last year.
We will be considering some important factors when handicapping these totals. Strength of schedule will be one of these factors. Players may face easier teams on their schedule in terms of defensive matchups. Injury history will be another factor.
This is likely to play into some under plays when looking at the possibility to get a number that we feel may be attainable for a player, pending they play an entire season. Changes in coaching staff and contract status will be a couple of the other factors.
We may see a player that has put up decent numbers in years past but now has a head coach or coordinator that has a history of utilizing said player’s position more. The opposite can remain true as well. With contract status, we will be leaning on going under on players that have signed fat contracts and leaning over on players that are in the last year of their current contracts.
D’Andre Swift OVER 500.5 yards (-115) (Caesars)
Miles Sanders led the Eagles last season with 1,269 yards on the ground. He was signed by Carolina in the offseason, and the Birds brought in Swift from Detroit to fill Sanders’s void.
In Detroit, splitting carries with Jamaal Williams, Swift finished with 540 yards. This season, he may share some carried with Kenneth Gainwell and Rashad Penny, but overall, we expect Swift to lead them in carries and certainly in yards. Even with minimal carries, the 501 yards should be attainable.
Christian McCaffery UNDER 900.5 yards (-110) (DraftKings)
While McCaffery finished with 1,140 yards last season, it was only the 3rd time in his 6 seasons that he surpassed 1000. As one of the best pass-catching backs in the league, he gets used a good amount in the passing attack as well.
We believe CMC will end up being more involved in the aerial attack this season for the Niners, and his total rushing numbers will suffer a bit.
Derrick Henry OVER 1150.5 yards (-110) (BetMGM)
Henry surpassed this total in 3 of his last 4 years. The one in which he failed was in 2021 when he was injured for most of the season.
He finished with 937 in just 8 games, showing that he was well on pace once again to go over this total. He went for over 1500 last year in a nice bounce-back year and will be stronger and healthier this season.
The Titans will still need to rely on the run game as the QB situation is still up in the air. We like Henry to contend for the league’s rushing title in 2023-2024.
Tony Pollard OVER 7.5 Touchdowns (+100) (FanDuel)
Pollard was in the backfield with Zeke over the last couple of seasons. Last year, Pollard finished with 9 touchdowns on just 193 carries.
Zeke accounted for another 12 rushing touchdowns on 231 carries. With Zeke now gone, we must believe Pollard will get a good increase in carries and become the top rushing option in the red zone.
We believe that Pollard is more likely to finish with double-digit touchdowns rather than 7 or fewer.
JK Dobbins OVER 5.5 Touchdowns (-112) (FanDuel)
Dobbins came back last season after missing the entire 2021 season. He showed flashes but was not the same player he was in 2020.
In that 2020 season, Dobbins finished with 9 touchdowns. One of the big differences between these 2 seasons was the availability of Lamar Jackson.
This season, he will be behind center and will create openings for Dobbins out of the backfield. 6 touchdowns this season will be very attainable for JK this season.
Nick Chubb OVER 8.5 Touchdowns (-104) (FanDuel)
Chubb was one of the top touchdown scorers on the ground last season, as he finished with 12. He did that with Kareem Hunt being another option for the Browns to utilize in the red zone.
This season, Hunt is no longer on the roster, and the fear of Chubb getting TDs stolen from him is minimal.
He proved last season that he has not lost a step and can be one of the most productive backs in the league. We typically don’t like taking 3 overs on TD futures, but these are all too good to pass up.
