Fantasy drafters chasing last year’s overall RB1 or a former WR9 on name value alone could be setting themselves up for the exact kind of face-plant that wrecked more than a few 2025 title runs.
Quick take:
- Top name: Christian McCaffrey
- Why: A 30-year-old back coming off 450 combined touches has almost no recent-history precedent for repeating at an elite level
- The number to watch: Just two of the last 13 backs who led the NFL in touches finished top-12 at the position the following year
Every August, fantasy managers fall in love with last season’s box score instead of this season’s risk profile. That’s exactly how a running back coming off a career year or a receiver drafted purely on name recognition ends up costing a league mid-October. With ADP data settling in from August drafts, three names stand out as the sharpest fades of the early rounds — not because they’re bad players, but because the market hasn’t adjusted for the red flags sitting right underneath the shiny 2025 stat line.
Christian McCaffrey Is Being Drafted Like Last Year Never Happened
McCaffrey silenced doubters in 2025, finishing as the overall PPR RB1 with 24.5 points per game on 311 carries and 102 receptions — a workload that, combined with the postseason, pushed him past 450 total touches. He’s currently going off the board around pick 6-8 in most formats, essentially top-three at the position. The problem is the same one that sidelined him for 13 games in 2024: history says workhorse backs north of 400 touches almost never repeat. Over the last 13 seasons, only a couple of backs who led the league in touches finished top-12 at the position the following year. McCaffrey has also never had a “so-so” season in San Francisco — it’s been dominant or nearly nonexistent every single time, tied directly to his health.
Add in that he’s entering his age-30 season, and the shakiest part of his profile — availability — is exactly the variable fantasy managers can’t control. A first-round running back who misses six-plus weeks can bury a roster before Halloween. It’s the same volatility that shows up in San Francisco’s live NFL odds whenever McCaffrey’s injury status is in question.
James Cook’s Touchdown Total Is Doing a Lot of Heavy Lifting
Cook is going off the board as a top-10 overall pick and the fifth running back selected on average, riding a 2025 season where he scored 18 total touchdowns. That number is the entire case for him — his usage profile tells a different story. Cook ran on only about half of Buffalo’s snaps, wasn’t heavily featured in the passing game, and his touchdown spike represented a massive jump from the four combined rushing scores he’d posted the two seasons prior. Buffalo also added D.J. Moore to an offense that already funnels a chunk of scoring opportunities through Josh Allen at the goal line, further capping Cook’s touchdown ceiling even if his per-carry efficiency stays strong.
None of that makes Cook a bad player. He’s still explosive, and a talented offense around him keeps the floor respectable. But paying a top-10 pick for a back whose ranking model has him closer to RB10 than RB5 is exactly the kind of gap that turns a first-round pick into a second-round outcome.
Malik Nabers Carries Real Injury and Scheme Risk at His Current Price
Nabers was on a WR9 fantasy pace before a torn ACL — with a follow-up procedure this spring — ended his 2025 season early. He’s currently being drafted anywhere from WR17 to as high as pick 30 overall, pricing in a full, healthy bounce-back season. The complication: there’s no certainty he’s ready for Week 1, and even once he is, the Giants are expected to lean heavily on the ground game under offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, projecting a run rate near 46% this season.
A receiver who isn’t a lock for Week 1 and plays in a run-first offense is a second- or third-round profile being drafted like a locked-in first-rounder.
When healthy, Nabers has legitimate league-winning upside, and his rapport with Jaxson Dart should continue building as the season progresses. That’s the long-term case for holding him. It’s the short-term ADP that’s the problem — drafters paying an early premium are betting on immediate health and target volume in an offense built to run the ball more, not less.
The Bottom Line
All three of these names were elite in 2025 for very specific reasons — a historic workload, a touchdown outlier, a scorching three-week stretch before injury. None of those conditions are guaranteed to repeat, and the drafting public is pricing them as if they will.
- Christian McCaffrey: fade the top-eight price tag given the touch count and injury history
- James Cook: touchdown regression is coming, and the receiving role isn’t growing
Let someone else in the draft room pay full price for last year’s results — there’s more value waiting a round or two later at each of these spots.
