Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act Would Bar Congress Members and Families From Prediction Market Bets

House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil of Wisconsin has introduced a bill that would make it illegal for members of Congress, their spouses, and their dependent children to place bets on prediction markets tied to political outcomes or government actions. The Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act was formally introduced on June 18, 2026, and immediately earned the backing of House Speaker Mike Johnson and President Donald Trump according to Fox Business reporting on the legislation. The bill has been referred to the House Administration Committee for further review.

The bill defines the category of prohibited contracts broadly, covering any transaction that hinges on a specific government policy, a government action, a political outcome, or any other event that came to the attention of a covered individual as a direct or indirect result of their congressional service. By extending the restrictions to spouses and dependent children, the legislation aims to prevent the kind of workaround where a lawmaker might direct a family member to place trades they themselves are barred from making.

Financial Penalties for Violations

Any covered individual who violates the law would face a penalty equal to either $2,000 or 10 percent of the transaction’s value, whichever is greater, plus the forfeiture of any net gains realized. Members would be prohibited from using their official allowances, Senate office accounts, or campaign funds to cover those penalties, ensuring the financial consequences fall on personal finances. Former members who leave office without paying outstanding fines could be referred to the Department of Justice for civil enforcement under the bill’s language.

Prediction markets like Kalshi have exploded in popularity over the past two years, generating billions in trading volume around election cycles, major sporting events including the FIFA World Cup, and commodity price movements. The growth has attracted attention from Congress in part because the platforms provide a mechanism that, without restrictions, would allow lawmakers to profit from information they hold by virtue of their position. The Hello Rookie team covers both the sports betting and DFS platforms available in the U.S. market, including those that touch on prediction-style wagering.

Legislative Context and Next Steps

The Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act does not exist in isolation. The Senate passed a resolution in April 2026 banning senators and their staffers from placing prediction market bets. Senator John Curtis of Utah and others have introduced a parallel measure that would extend similar restrictions to all government officials, including the executive branch. Steil’s House bill adds the crucial dimension of family member coverage and a formal penalty structure that the Senate’s internal rule change lacks.

For the bill to become law, it would need to pass out of the House Administration Committee, clear a full House vote, pass the Senate, and receive a presidential signature. Given the stated support from both the Speaker and the president, the legislative path is more viable than many similar governance measures. The 180-day implementation window built into the legislation suggests its sponsors expect at least the possibility of it moving through the process.

What It Means for Bettors

For ordinary bettors and prediction market participants, this legislation changes nothing directly. The bill targets elected officials and their families only. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket remain accessible to regular users in most U.S. states, and the sports betting market through licensed sportsbook promotions continues to expand. What the bill does signal, however, is an increased level of federal engagement with prediction markets as a category that demands governance and oversight — a trend worth tracking for anyone with an interest in where the industry is heading over the next few years.