Stars vs Avalanche Game 6 Prediction, Odds, and Best Bet

The Dallas Stars have a chance to punch their ticket to the 2nd round when they visit the Colorado Avalanche in Denver for Game 6 tonight. After dominating Game 5 with a convincing 6-2 win, Dallas holds a 3-2 series lead and all the momentum heading into Ball Arena. Of course, the Avs will undoubtedly play as if everything is on the table so it’s easy to see why the bookmakers are leaning one way.

So, which of these Western powerhouses is going to head to the next round of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs?  We think this series will end sooner than you think.

Game Details and Betting Odds

This has been a back-and-forth series with just about everything you could imagine — blowouts, overtime thrillers, and even a shutout. NHL Playoff hockey doesn’t get much better than that. 

But heading into Game 6, the Stars look like the more composed, balanced, and efficient team. They simply know how to get the job done. Colorado won the first game of the series, but Dallas bounced back with 2 wins and then each took a game after that, so we’re sitting at 3 to 2 with Dallas holding the edge. The oddsmakers may give the Avalanche a slight edge at -180 on the ML for playing at home, but it’s Dallas that’s trending in the right direction even though they’re pegging them at +150.

Colorado has some serious talent, but Dallas has found their rhythm at the perfect time of the series. The Stars have outscored the Avs 6-2 just one game after being blanked in Game 4. That speaks volumes about how well they’ve responded to adversity. Will it be enough to push past the Avalanche on their home ice?

Stars Surge While Avalanche Struggle With Consistency

Game 5 was all Dallas. The Stars scored early and never let Colorado settle in. Wyatt Johnston, to no surprise, had a breakout performance with 2 goals, including one on the power play, and a helper. Roope Hintz chipped in with an empty-netter in the final seconds and an assist. Thomas Harley, Mikko Rantanen, and Mason Marchment also found the scoresheet as well which just goes to show the depth this team has going for it. Dallas scored 6 times on just 27 shots — an incredibly efficient offensive showing and they’ll need to keep that up.

The Stars were also dominant on faceoffs, winning 55.4% of draws. That’s no small detail, especially in playoff hockey where puck possession is often the biggest difference between winning and losing. They outhit the Avalanche 51 to 29 and blocked more shots as they’re showing more urgency across the board. Dallas even managed to win the special teams battle, going 1-for-4 on the power play while killing all 3 penalties they faced. With how scrappy these 2 teams are playing, it very well could come down to who wins out on the special teams.

On the other side of the ice, Colorado’s top line is doing all the heavy lifting. Nathan MacKinnon now has 5 playoff goals and 2 assists and leads all players in this series with 116 points this season. But he’s not getting enough help and that’s what’s hurting them the most. Artturi Lehkonen and Martin Necas each have a couple of points, but Colorado’s depth scoring has dried up. Logan O’Connor has found the net a couple of times as well and has 5 points in the postseason, but it’s still not enough. The Avs are averaging 3 goals per game in the postseason, but their power play has taken a hit, converting at just 17.6%. As we mentioned, it’ll have to do better than that.

That’s where the cracks start to show. The Avalanche had 3 power plays in Game 5 and came up empty-handed. Dallas, by contrast, made the most of their chances and looked far more organized and dangerous with the man advantage even though they only found the back of the net during one of the power plays. Colorado’s special teams were a strength earlier in the season, but that hasn’t been the case in this series and if they can’t figure that out tonight, this might be the end of the road for their 24-25 season.

Defensively, Colorado hasn’t had an answer. Their goaltending faltered yet again in Game 5, and their blue line allowed way too many high-danger chances. That’s a bad combination in an elimination game. Meanwhile, Dallas got solid team defense, with great performances from their bottom 6 and defenders like Alexander Petrovic and Tyler Seguin contributing with assists.

Another concern for the Avalanche is discipline. They took 9 penalties in Game 5, and while it didn’t result in a ton of goals, it killed momentum. Dallas surely didn’t give them much space to operate, and when the Avalanche finally got something going, they were either chasing the puck or heading back to the penalty box.

Avs vs Stars Prediction

The Stars have shown they can win multiple ways — in overtime, in tight games, and now with a blowout — and that versatility is what makes them dangerous.

Their top stars — Johnston, Duchene, and Hintz — are all producing as expected, and they’ve gotten timely secondary scoring and rock-solid goaltending from Oettinger when needed. They’ve found a gear Colorado hasn’t matched since Game 4.

Nathan MacKinnon and the Avalanche for sure are not going down without a fight, but they’ve been outplayed in too many key areas — special teams, depth scoring, and physicality. Unless Colorado flips the script in all 3 or at the very least 2 of the 3, it’s hard to see them forcing a Game 7.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Stars 4, Avalanche 2
• Best Bet: Take the Dallas Stars moneyline at +150

The Stars proved they can win on the road in this series and are simply playing the better brand of hockey right now. For a player prop, ride the hot hand — Wyatt Johnston to score a goal at +245 is worth a look after his breakout Game 5 performance and those odds are as juicy as they’ve ever been.