Robinhood Launches World Cup Prediction Markets on Rothera as It Builds Its Own Exchange Infrastructure

Robinhood has launched 2026 FIFA World Cup prediction markets through Rothera, a new derivatives exchange it co-owns with Susquehanna International Group, marking the first time the trading platform has routed significant event contracts through its own affiliated exchange. The World Cup kicks off June 11 across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, with 104 matches scheduled through the final on July 19. Robinhood’s World Cup offering includes individual match outcomes, tournament winner markets, spreads, totals, group-stage results, and player milestones.

Rothera, previously known as LedgerX, held a CFTC license before Robinhood and SIG acquired a majority stake. World Cup contracts were self-certified with the CFTC on May 27, with the broader product suite going live in advance of the opening match. The launch represents a meaningful strategic shift: rather than routing all prediction market flow through Kalshi, Robinhood is building toward a model where its own exchange handles core, high-volume markets.

How the Split Routing Model Works

Robinhood is not ending its relationship with Kalshi. Instead, the platform uses a split routing model where World Cup match outcomes, tournament winners, spreads, and total goals contracts go through Rothera, while player-specific contracts, parlay-style combinations, and complex tournament props continue through Kalshi. Robinhood has said routing decisions will be based on liquidity and resolution clarity for each market type.

The economic incentive for building Rothera is clear. By routing its most actively traded contracts through an exchange it controls, Robinhood keeps more of the fee revenue from its user base’s trading activity. Robinhood’s CFO has said most prediction market volume is expected to migrate to Rothera over time. The company processed more than 16 billion event contracts in the first half of 2026 alone, compared to 12 billion for all of 2025.

For users, switching to Rothera contracts comes with lower fees. Robinhood introduced a revised pricing model on June 1 where commissions vary by contract price and order size, never exceeding one cent per contract. Robinhood Gold subscribers save up to 50 percent compared to standard users, and up to 95 percent compared to the old pricing structure. Contracts routed through Rothera avoid the additional exchange fees that apply to Kalshi and ForecastEx contracts on Robinhood.

World Cup as a Market Test

The 2026 World Cup is one of the largest single-event prediction market opportunities in US history, with analysts projecting over $2.5 billion in total US trading volume. Spain and France are currently the top favorites in tournament winner markets, at 18 and 17 cents respectively, with a competitive group of challengers including England, Argentina, Portugal, and Brazil in the 9-to-11-cent range.

For sports bettors in states where traditional sports betting is legal, prediction markets like Robinhood and Kalshi offer an alternative or supplementary avenue to engage with sports outcomes. The World Cup in particular is drawing interest from bettors who follow international soccer but are more accustomed to US sports, and platforms like Robinhood are investing in educational and engagement tools to convert that audience into active prediction market users. Bettors who prefer licensed sportsbooks can also compare current sportsbook promotions for World Cup-related offers from major platforms.